Ranked 8th nationally, Bill Self and the Kansas Jayhawks take on Kelvin Sampson’s Houston Cougars in this massive Big 12 matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Houston-Kansas prediction and pick.

After a thrilling overtime victory, Kelvin Sampson and his Houston Cougars find themselves on the road for a second straight game. Led by All-American candidate Jamal Shead, the Cougars are setting analytical records on the defensive side of the ball this season. Houston is without 6-6 wing Terrance Arceneaux, but Temple’s Damian Dunn and Baylor’s LJ Cryer have shouldered the load. 

In their way stands Bill Self in the legendary Allen Fieldhouse. The Jayhawks have not enjoyed the success many predicted in the preseason, but they are still rock solid. A recent change putting 6-9 freshman Johnny Furphy into the starting lineup has sparked the Jayhawks offense.  At 5-3 in conference, Kansas needs a win to stay attached to Houston, Iowa State, and Texas Tech atop the Big 12. 

Undoubtedly one of the best games of the season so far, who will prevail in this top-10 Big 12 showdown?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Houston-Kansas Odds

Houston: -1.5 (-120)

Moneyline: -134

Kansas: +1.5 (-102)

Moneyline: +112

Over: 134.5 (-115)

Under: 134.5 (-105)

How to Watch Houston vs. Kansas

Time: 4:00 pm ET/ 1:00 pm PT

TV: ESPN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Houston Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, the pace of play jumps off the page when looking at the numbers. While Houston plays one of the slowest paces in the nation at 18.7 seconds per possession (19.1 in B12), Kansas plays one of the fastest paces at 16.1 seconds per possession (16.4 in B12). Combine this slow Houston pace with the fact that the Kansas offense attempts threes at one of the lowest rates nationally and we could be in for a slugfest. If Houston can slow this game down, the margin of error for Kansas’ execution in their half-court offense becomes slim to none. 

Secondly, Houston’s defense is setting national records. The areas that are most important in this matchup are block rate and two-point defense. Since Kansas shoots such a low amount of threes, Houston’s interior defense will be a huge factor. In Big 12 play, Houston allows the least amount of points from two with the best effective field goal percentage. 

Lastly, Houston has done a great job at taking care of the basketball. The Cougars rank first in the Big 12 in both turnover rate and non-steal turnover rate. When playing on the road, especially at Allen Fieldhouse, limiting turnovers could be the difference. 

Why Kansas Will Cover The Spread/Win

The power of Allen Fieldhouse is no secret. Undefeated at home this year, the Jayhawks have only lost four home games in the past five years. Houston, in their first year in the Big 12, has lost two of their four road games in conference with one of the two wins being in overtime. With remaining road games of Cincinnati, Baylor, Oklahoma, and UCF, this is the most hostile environment Houston will play in for the rest of the year. 

Also, the insertion of Johnny Furphy into the starting lineup creates some mismatches on the Houston defense. With 6-9 200lb Furphy in the lineup, 6-7 235lb KJ Adams has been bumped down to the three offensively. Defensively, Houston plays three guys at the three – 6-3 200lb Emanuel Sharp, 6-5 200lb Damian Dunn, and a little bit of 6-2 175 Mylik Wilson. Surprisingly, Adams has the same offensive rating as Hunter Dickinson (118). If Bill Self can gameplan to get KJ Adams to his spots, the Jayhawks could find some consistency offensively. 

Importantly, Houston has been vulnerable on the road this year. The Cougars have played five true road games with a record of 3-2. Let’s dive into this road record. They trailed a bad Xavier team in the second half before winning by six, 66-60. The next two road games were losses at Iowa State and TCU back to back putting their road record at 1-2. In the past two weeks, Houston went to BYU and won by seven after it was tied, 68-68, with 1:40 remaining. Then, on Monday Houston escaped Texas with an overtime win after trailing 59-63 with 2:14 remaining. In summary, Houston has not been elite on the road. 

Final Houston-Kansas Prediction & Pick

This game has all the makings for a rockfight. A team in Kansas that does not shoot the three ball often against a team in Houston that makes it near impossible to score inside. It is important to note the size that Kansas plays with. Point guard Dajuan Harris is the only starter shorter than 6-7, this Kansas defense is stout as well.

Allen Fieldhouse has only seen this team lose four times in the past five seasons. When in doubt, go with the home team. Give me Kansas in what should be a rocking atmosphere. 

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Final Houston-Kansas Prediction & Pick: Kansas ML +112