Iga Swiatek takes on Jasmine Paolini in the French Open women's singles final. Our French Open odds series has our Swiatek Paolini prediction and pick. Find out how to watch Swiatek Paolini.
Before the 2024 French Open began, Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka were expected to meet in this women's singles championship match. Sabalenka was on course until the quarterfinals, when she did not feel well on court, had to take a few pills, and never looked physically settled. Teenager Mirra Andreeva was able to take advantage of Sabalenka's physical impairment. Jasmine Paolini then blew out Andreeva in the semifinals to become the unexpected opponent for Swiatek in a final which has a very different feel compared to a Swiatek-Sabalenka match. Swiatek and Sabalenka are the top two players in the world, both owning multiple major championships and having met twice in finals earlier in the clay season, in Madrid and Rome. Paolini's appearance in this French Open final creates the possibility that we will see a historic upset, but it also presents the very real scenario of a wipeout in a major final.
It's a situation in which most people will expect a coronation for Swiatek, the queen of clay. Paolini, though, has nothing to lose, and if she plays freely, who knows what could happen?
Here are the Iga Swiatek-Jasmine Paolini French Open odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
French Open Odds: Iga Swiatek-Jasmine Paolini Odds
Game spread:
Swiatek -6.5: -152
Paolini: +6.5: +114
Money line
Swiatek: -2100
Paolini: +1000
To win first set
Swiatek: -1000
Paolini: +620
Total Games In Match
Over 17.5: -110
Under 17.5: -120
Swiatek over 12.5 games: +184
Swiatek under 12.5 games: -260
Paolini over 5.5 games: -102
Paolini under 5.5 games: -132
How To Watch Iga Swiatek vs Jasmine Paolini
TV: NBC
Stream: Peacock
Time: 9:10 a.m. ET / 6:10 a.m. PT
*Watch Iga Swiatek-Jasmine Paolini LIVE on fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Iga Swiatek Could Cover The Spread
The best female clay-court player in the world is in the final of the world's most prestigious clay-court tournament. She had one scare at this tournament, against Naomi Osaka in the second round. Osaka hits a very big ball and is one of the elite hitters in women's tennis. The only players who really trouble Swiatek are the big hitters such as Osaka, Elena Rybakina, Jelena Ostapenko, and Aryna Sabalenka. Jasmine Paolini is not that kind of player. If you watched Paolini in her semifinal win over Mirra Andreeva, she was fully in control of the match, but partly due to Andreeva not being able to hit the ball hard enough to rush her or take away her time. Paolini will have nowhere near that amount of time in this match. It does not figure to be a matchup Paolini can exploit in any meaningful way.
Why Jasmine Paolini Could Cover The Spread
This has been the best tournament of Jasmine Paolini's career. She is in the finals of the women's doubles with Sara Errani, in addition to making her first major singles final at age 28. This is the ride of her life, and she's so locked in that anything seems possible. If Swiatek gets nervous in a huge match, which is certainly possible, Paolini can cover what is a fairly large spread. As long as she plays two close sets, she will cover.
Final Iga Swiatek-Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Pick
Iga Swiatek is elite. She has earned trust in a match of this magnitude. Take Swiatek against the spread.
Final Iga Swiatek-Jasmine Paolini Prediction & Pick: Swiatek -6.5 games
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