We are back with another prediction and we move on to the second round of group play in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. It's time for some Group I action as Italy takes on Serbia for their first assignment of round two. Check out our FIBA World Cup odds series for our Italy-Serbia prediction and pick.

Italy went 2-1 in the first round of group stage action, with their only defeat coming at the hands of Karl-Anthony Towns and the Dominican Republic. The Italians easily handled their 2023 FIBA World Cup opener with an 81-67 victory over Angola. Italy booked its ticket to the second round with an 87-80 victory over co-host country Philippines. Simone Fontecchio led the Italians in scoring through the opening round with an average of 16.7 points per game.

Meanwhile, Serbia took care of business and swept through the first round despite the absence of two-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic. They opened their tournament with a 105-63 drubbing of China, then followed it up with a 17-point victory over Puerto Rico. Serbia then closed the group stage with a dominant 115-83 win over South Sudan to finish the round with an average margin of victory of 30.3 points. Sans Jokic, Bogdan Bogdanovic led the Serbians in scoring, averaging 18.0 points per game through the three first-round games.

Here are the 2023 FIBA World Cup odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

2023 FIBA World Cup Odds: Italy-Serbia Odds

Italy: +7.5 (-111)

Serbia: -7.5 (-115)

Over: 170.5 (-115)

Under: 170.5 (-111)

How to Watch Italy vs. Serbia

Stream: ESPN+, Courtside 1891

Time: 4:00 AM ET/ 1:00 AM PT

*Watch NBA games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*

Why Italy Will Cover The Spread

Six players from Italy averaged at least 7.7 points during the opening round of the 2023 FIBA World Cup. This Italian squad does not have much NBA talent — Simone Fontecchio of the Utah Jazz is the only current active player in the league. Nonetheless, Italy has shown that it has enough talent up and down the roster to compete in this tournament, despite no longer having the likes of Marco Bellinelli and Danilo Gallinari representing the team.

Nonetheless, Fontecchio has stepped up as Italy's leader for this tournament. As noted above, the Jazz forward led the team in scoring through the first round with an average of 16.7 points. Fontecchio, however, was inefficient from the field despite his production. In those three games, he shot just 37 percent from the field and 20 percent from beyond the arc. If Fontecchio is able to generate better looks and become more efficient, Italy has a chance to give Serbia its first loss.

Stefano Tonut and Giampaolo Ricci also emerged as a consistent and efficient scoring threats for the Italians. Tonut, who plays for Olimpia Milano, averaged 13.0 points and shot a blistering 66.7 percent from the field in three games. Meanwhile, Ricci averaged 12.7 points on a similarly efficient 56 percent field goal shooting.

The Italians have also been able to make the most of their trips to the foul line. Through three games, Italy has missed just seven of their 65 free-throw attempts. Their 89.2 percent clip from the charity stripe ranks first in the tournament.

Why Serbia Will Cover The Spread

Serbia enters this contest as favorites to remain undefeated in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. This team hasn't skipped a beat even without reigning NBA Finals MVP Nikola Jokic, who is deservedly going bonkers in his home country, celebrating his newly won NBA title. Nonetheless, the likes of Bojan Bogdanovic and Nikola Jovic have picked up the slack in the absence of the Serbian superstar.

Bogdanovic led the team in scoring through the opening round with 18.0 points per game on 43.6 percent field goal shooting and 43.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Jovic isn't far behind with an average of 17.0 points and is shooting at a scorching 75 percent from the field and 66.7 percent from long distance.

Apart from those two, four other players have averaged at least 9.0 points per game for the Serbians led by Nikola Milutinov. Without Jokic, Milutinov has stepped up as the team's main man in the middle. The Olympiacos BC center has scored in double figures in each of the three games and has registered a double-double in two of the three contest. He is averaging 13.3 points and 10.3 rebounds so far.

Serbia has also been the most efficient team in the tournament. Their 57.2 percent clip from the field and 44.7 percent shooting from downtown both top the 2023 FIBA World Cup so far.

Final Italy-Serbia Prediction & Pick

Go with Serbia for this one. Albeit playing against lower-quality teams, the Serbians have looked dominant so far in the 2023 FIBA World Cup. FIBA Bojan Bogdanovic is a different beast, while Nikola Jovic is proving his worth as a future star for this team moving forward. Their offense has also been on point in three games and it's going to be hard to beat a team that cannot miss from the field.

Final Italy-Serbia Prediction & Pick: Serbia: -7.5 (-115)