Buffalo Bills running back James Cook has a bright fantasy football outlook for the 2023 season in an incredibly high-powered offense as the presumed starter in Buffalo's backfield. Cook is a dangerous receiver out of the backfield, can rip off big plays with explosive speed, averaged 5.7 yards per carry as a rookie, and has received glowing reviews from Bills personnel.
So why isn't Cook being drafted like a legitimate RB2 with massive upside?
James Cook's Average Draft Position
Cook's current average draft position (ADP) in PPR leagues is just 81.8 overall and RB30, according to FantasyPros.
Last season, playing primarily behind Devin Singletary, Cook received only 89 carries as a rookie and finished as the RB44. However, towards the end of the season, Cook worked his way into more backfield snaps (roughly 40% over the last seven games) and was the RB25 in points per game. Even on the bad end of a timeshare, Cook was putting up RB2 type numbers.
But what Cook did with his limited carries should hold some major weight heading into his second season. Cook was Pro Football Focus's No.1 ranked runner in breakaway run rate (44%) and averaged a robust 5.7 yards per carry last season. Perhaps even more encouraging for fantasy players was Cook's involvement in the passing game while he was on the field, putting up a 27% target rate per route run, good for top-5 amongst all running backs.
The offseason has broken nicely thus far for Cook's fantasy outlook as well. The Bills added underrated rusher Damien Harris into the fold after losing Devin Singletary in free agency to the Houston Texans while receiving specialist Nyheim Hines suffered a season-ending injury in a jet ski accident, leaving the pass-catching role wide open for Cook to fill.
While Harris could very easily snipe goalline touches from Cook, those high-quality touches aren't necessary for Cook to return value at his current ADP. The passing game and big play potential alone should have Cook firmly on the RB2 radar, even if it's close to a full 50-50 split with Harris. Out of the two backs, Cook has more potential for a true three-down role, as Harris has rarely been used out of the backfield as a receiver, compiling just 40 receptions across four seasons with the New England Patriots. Think of this as an Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram type of situation.
Cook is being drafted much closer to his floor than his ceiling, as an injury to Harris or a bigger split in Cook's favor in the Bills' backfield than expected could easily propel him to a top-12 PPR finish at the running back position.
James Cook's Fantasy Football Outlook
While there are questions about what kind of opportunity James Cook will receive in the Bills' backfield, there doesn't appear to be any questions about his overall talent and versatility. Bills offensive coordinator Ken Dorsey praised Cook earlier in the offseason for his well-rounded game:
Bills OC Ken Dorsey on James Cook, who is expected to take over the No. 1 RB job this season: “We’re excited about his versatility as an every-down back.” pic.twitter.com/6XGbIMuwgS
— alex brasky (@alexbrasky) July 27, 2023
The words “every down” should be music to fantasy football players' ears, even though “bell-cow” backs are highly uncommon in today's NFL. The important thing is that the Bills clearly view Cook as someone who can thrive in every situation, and while Harris represents an upgrade over Devin Singletary as a pure rusher, Cook's comfort level in his second year in Buffalo's offense could give him an early edge and the opportunity to take the starting job and literally run away with it.
Cook's skill set lines up perfectly with what Buffalo wants to do, as the Bills have ranked fifth in pass rate for the past three years. Cook also seems aware of what holes he needs to fill in Buffalo's running back room and is confident in his abilities, as he told Ryan Talbot of NYup.com.
“Just come in and do what I do. Change the game with my versatility,” Cook said. “Catching the ball out of the backfield. Pass blocking. Just try to do what I can do to help the team win games and ultimately win the Super Bowl.”
As a selection going in the seventh round or later in most drafts, Cook is a home run in the dreaded RB dead zone of drafts. It's hard to identify any other running back sleepers that offer a better combination of talent, potential, and opportunity than Cook does. James Cook of the Bills is a smash fantasy football pick for the 2023 NFL season.
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