UFC Abu Dhabi: Cory Sandhagen vs. Umar Nurmagomedov kicks off the main card with a fight in the lightweight division between Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener. Alvarez is coming off a second-round submission victory in his last fight meanwhile, Brener is coming off a tough unanimous decision defeat in his last bout. With that said, check out our UFC odds series for our Alvarez-Brener prediction and pick.
Joel Alvarez (20-3) most recently submitted Marc Diakiese with a beautiful D’arce Choke in round two of their fight. After a couple of fight cancelations, this will be Alvarez’s first fight in 13 months. He will be looking to add to his 5-2 UFC record by getting another finish when he takes on Elves Brener this weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Elves Brener (16-4) had the daunting task of going against one of the surging prospects in the lightweight division Myktybek Orolbai where he dropped a hard-fought decision for his first UFC loss. Brener will be looking to get back to his winning ways when he takes on the surging Joel Alvarez this weekend.
Here are the UFC Abu Dhabi Odds, courtesy of BetOnline.
UFC Abu Dhabi Odds: Joel Alvarez-Elves Brener Odds
Joel Alvarez: -159
Elves Brener: +139
Over 1.5 rounds: -175
Under 1.5 rounds: +145
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Why Joel Alvarez Will Win
Joel Alvarez will be making his return to the Octagon for the first time since his July 2022 victory over Marc Diakiese who he submitted via D’arce Choke in round two. After some fights that didn’t come to fruition against L’udovit Klein and Mateusz Rebecki, he now gets to get back in the Octagon to face off against Brazil’s Elves Brener this weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Alvarez was looking like a bonafide contender after rattling off four straight victories one of which was a brutal standing TKO of Thiago Moises until he met up with current No. 1 contender Arman Tsarukyan who brutally finished him via ground-and-pound in round two. However, Alvarez got back into the win column in his next fight and is looking to continue his winning ways. He gets to take on a game opponent Elves Brener who’s going to bring out the dogfight in this matchup. Alvarez is tall and long for this division and will need to use that to his advantage like he did against Moises and when this fight does hit the mat he’s going to need to use those long limbs to snatch up the submission like he’s done time and time again. If Alvarez can avoid this fight being a dog fight where Brener excels he will be the more technical long-range striker on the feet with dangerous submissions giving the ability to get the job done wherever the fight takes place.
Why Elves Brener Will Win
Elves Brener has exceeded all expectations since stepping foot inside the Octagon where he narrowly defeated Zubaira Tukhugov in his UFC debut. From there he won two out of his next three fights with two brutal knockouts of Guram Kuteteladze and Kaynan Kruschewsky. However, his next fight against the surging prospect Myktybek Orolbai was deemed to be too much as the grappling prowess of Orolbai stifled the offense of Brener even though he did almost make a remarkable comeback in round three. Brener gets his chance to get back on track by taking on Spain’s Joel Alvarez this weekend in Abu Dhabi.
Brener is an absolute dog and that stems from his training over at Chute Boxe Diego Lima training exclusively with his longtime training partner and former UFC lightweight champion Charles Oliveira. He has the means to beat his opponents wherever the fight takes place and before he stepped foot inside the Octagon he was more of a submission artist but now he has grown to be a more complete fighter with two of his three wins coming by knockout during his time in the UFC. What sets Brener apart from the rest is his will to win and how his cardio is possibly his greatest attribute. With how Alvarez has only seen the judge’s scorecards once where he dropped a decision against Damir Ismagulov there is a chance that the longer this fight goes the more it favors Brener. As long as Brener can weather that early storm and not get caught in a submission in transition he can take over as the fight gets into the later rounds to get a late finish or the nod on the judge’s scorecards.
Final Joel Alvarez-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick
This fight could potentially be the fight of the night as both Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener come to fight and put on the show for the fans and this weekend will be no different. Ultimately, expect this fight to be yet another Joel Alvarez and Elves Brener barnburner where we shouldn’t see the judge’s scorecards and it will be Brener who will be the one to land the harder shots and take the damage a lot better and as the fight gets into the later rounds that’s where Brener will drown him and get the finish to get his fourth win in his UFC career.
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Final Joel Alvarez-Elves Brener Prediction & Pick: Elves Brener (+139), Over 1.5 Rounds (-185)
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