What's in store for Joel Embiid in the 2023-24 NBA season?
The Philadelphia 76ers superstar was riding as high as can be last season, winning an MVP award and leading the Sixers to one of the most successful regular seasons in recent franchise history. Then he put up a horrific final five quarters in the playoffs as the Boston Celtics eliminated the Sixers again.
Heading into his eighth playing season, Embiid and the Sixers are starting to get written off. Nick Nurse has plenty of ideas for how to get more out of him and the team, starting with playmaking and defense. Embiid has often talked about how much he wants to excel in both areas. Now is his chance. The future of the franchise will be shaped by what he can do under his new coach and where he can lead his team in the midst of more uncertainty.
Here are five predictions for Joel Embiid for the 2023-24 season.
Joel Embiid averages at least 5.0 assists per game
After the Sixers' preseason finale, Embiid said that he doesn’t like being purely a scorer. Nurse's offense should ensure that he does more than that. With James Harden moving more out of the picture by the day, it seems extremely likely that Embiid will not only set a career high in assists per game but cross the five-per-game threshold.
Playmaking is not a headline skill for Embiid, but he is a respectable passer who has approached or eclipsed double-digit assists numerous times in his career. If the opportunities are there for a teammate to get open — and they should be under Nurse — the big fella can find them.
The supporting cast around Embiid should definitely be good enough to help him bump his assists per game up by 0.8. He'll have plenty of perimeter shooters in Tyrese Maxey, De'Anthony Melton, Tobias Harris, P.J. Tucker, Danuel House Jr. and Danny Green. Jaden Springer's shot looks good so far, too. Paul Reed serves as a lob threat and Kelly Oubre Jr. could be both. Even if Harden's not there to attract off-ball attention and spot up, the Sixers have enough for Embiid to work with.
With a career-high mark in assists potentially on the horizon for Embiid, a career high in another category should be up for grabs, too.
Joel Embiid records at least three triple-doubles
So far, Embiid has five triple-doubles to his name, including one last season. An increase in playmaking should allow the big man to stuff the stat sheet further and beat his preview career-best mark in triple-doubles (two, which he has done twice).
Embiid's lone-triple double last season came in a throw-away game on New Year's Eve in Oklahoma City where Tobias Harris was the only other starter to play. The only other time he had double-digit assists, he recorded just six rebounds — this was when the Sixers snapped the Milwaukee Bucks' 17-game winning streak. He tallied eight a bunch of other times.
Last year was a bad rebounding year for Embiid. It was the first time he averaged under 15 rebounds per 100 possessions. Still, he averaged more than 10 per game, so even if he doesn’t get back to where he previously was, double-digit boards shouldn’t be hard to come by. If Nurse's emphasis on rolling to the rim in sets with Maxey has him chasing offensive rebounds more, the boards will be even easier for the big man.
If Embiid turns a few of his own buckets into buckets for his teammates over the course of the season — or at least opportunities to get them — he should encroach upon and reach triple-double territory with regularity.
Joel Embiid makes All-Defensive Second Team
The Sixers' big man got absolutely jobbed on the annual NBA GM survey by not getting a single vote for the best interior defender in the league. If he performs the way Nurse envisions he will on defense, he could serve up the survey takers a heaping plate of crow and earn an All-Defensive Team nod, which he hasn’t gotten since 2020-21. Barring an unbelievably great defensive campaign, he will be in line for a second-team spot.
Nurse wants Embiid to get swings at the ball on defense. In his first game under Nurse, his preseason debut after sitting out the first three games, Embiid had a pair of blocks in 33 minutes and didn’t let shots go unchallenged inside. As the anchor to the Sixers' defense, Embiid will be in a featured role where voters will see how he impacts the game.
Really, all Embiid needs to contend for a spot is a reminder of how great of a defender he can be. Nurse's plans should help his stock climb. He has been a fearsome force for his entire career and was consistently great as a defender in the playoffs last year, as dominant as anyone when it came to scaring opponents away from the rim. Channeling that energy more will turn into a strong case.
While the competition for All-Defensive Teams will be stiff, as Bam Adebayo, Brook Lopez and Nic Claxton are all very good candidates. Anthony Davis could join them as a center on ballots rather than a forward since that's the lineup direction his team appears to be trending in. Adebayo is considered one of the very best defenders in the league and Lopez just had a DPOY-worthy campaign, so a spot on the First Team will be very tough for Embiid to seize.
Nonetheless, with Nurse emphasizing aggressive defense, Embiid should find himself back on the All-Defensive Team.
Joel Embiid falls outside of the top 5 of MVP voting
Many voters are surely feeling buyer's remorse after awarding Embiid the MVP only for him to stink it up at the most important times in the playoffs while Nikola Jokic ripped off a dominant title run. That shouldn’t technically factor into voting for a regular-season award, but it will. The human beings who vote on the award — the ones who already favored Jokic in past seasons and now are seeing the Serbian big man's stock rise to new heights — will remember what happened last season.
Jokic is the presumptive MVP favorite, and there will be numerous players who will be ahead of Embiid because their teams will be better. That list is bound to include Jayson Tatum and Giannis Antetokounmpo. Devin Booker, Luka Doncic, Stephen Curry, LeBron James and Anthony Davis loom as players whose combination of skill, production and team performance could get them into the top five, too.
Embiid will probably still have a good enough case to round out the top five, but for him to fall all the way off is not at all outside the realm of possibility. The competition for MVP is stiff, so he will have to do some truly otherworldly things to get serious consideration. The Sixers may not be a top-three team in their conference, plus the reputational hit from his most epic playoff flop to date has put Embiid at a massive disadvantage.
If this is it for Embiid being a top-tier MVP contender, it has been a great ride. Since the turn of the century, only Jokic, James Harden, LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Steve Nash and Tim Duncan have been in the top two of MVP voting for three straight years. Plenty of great, iconic players haven’t been able to do that. Embiid still has a trophy to show for it after winning last season. For a player who was injured for his first two seasons and sat on the verge of retirement, it's an accomplishment that shouldn’t be downplayed.
Besides, at this point, an MVP should be even less of a priority for Embiid. His focus has been on leading the Sixers to a championship. The desire to reach that goal should only grow.
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