The 2023 season was another fantastic one for Josh Allen, having recorded his third overall fantasy football QB1 finish in the past four seasons. As a major catalyst for always looking to draft running quarterbacks, Allen was a man on a mission last year for the Buffalo Bills.
His outstanding fantasy performance was aided in large part by Stefon Diggs, who rounded out his fourth season in Buffalo with another 1,000-yard season. But last year was the final year of Diggs being with the Bills, as he was traded to the Houston Texans this offseason, drawing an interesting response from Allen.
So what is next for Allen? Is it still in the cards for him to factor into the QB1 conversation, even without a bonafide WR1 option? Let’s take a look back at his 2023 season and offer up a look at the 2024 fantasy outlook for Allen.
2023 season in review
4,306 passing yards, 29 passing TDs, 18 INTs, 524 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs
While throwing for fewer yards, fewer touchdowns, and more interceptions than the previous year, Allen produced the best fantasy season of his six-year career. A big reason why he was on many championship rosters last year was because of his rushing upside, which saw him turn 111 carries into 524 yards and a career-best 15 rushing touchdowns.
That kind of rushing production is atypical for Allen, who, before last season, averaged 620 rushing yards but fewer than eight touchdowns on the ground. The fact that the offensive scheme leaned so heavily into Allen’s rushing ability made him stand out in fantasy football than expected, for all the right reasons.
Even during Allen’s superb season, he was not allergic to poor performances. On three separate occasions, the former Wyoming QB put up 17 or fewer fantasy points in a game, including a putrid four-turnover game to open the year against the Giants.
The highs are very high for Allen, but at times the lows are incredibly low. These types of roller-coaster results seem to come standard with a lot of star quarterbacks. While his '23 season wasn’t his best all-around statistically, Allen showed that he is more than capable of leading a team with his legs, even if that comes at the cost of throwing more interceptions.
2024 season preview
Looking ahead to the '24 campaign, Allen will once again be one of the first quarterbacks drafted in fantasy football. Coming off a year that was so reliant on his rushing abilities, will the scheme once again call for that?
Offensive coordinator Joe Brady, who took over for the fired Ken Dorsey during last season, is back for a full year leading the Bills offense. Without a focal receiver to use in gameplans, all signs are pointing toward tight end Dalton Kincaid being Allen’s top target this season.
Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce have been doing that sort of thing down in Kansas City, but their secondary receivers have enough talent to take attention away from the top target. It looks like Buffalo may be trying to replicate that offensive scheme this year, but the big difference is that their surrounding group of wideouts is not as talented as KC.
Expecting rookie Keon Coleman, Curtis Samuel, Mack Hollins, Khalil Shakir, and others to lead an above-average passing attack this upcoming season is asking a lot. While Samuel has familiarity with Brady dating back to their days in Carolina, this group will have a lot of its shoulders this season.
It remains to be seen which option will step up and become a trusted target for Allen, but early signs are pointing toward Samuel and Shakir having the biggest roles. While Coleman was Buffalo’s first draft pick in April, he has shown signs of picking up the NFL a bit slow, which will prolong his ascension into regular playing time.
Running back James Cook will play a big role in the passing attack too, as long as he can overcome his fumble problems. Having a pass-catching back like Cook will help open up the offense a bit, but just like is the case with the WRs, it will be a big ask to take on an even larger role than last season.
Lastly, the tight end room of Kincaid and Dawson Knox will be looked to a ton in the passing attack. Early reports from training camp show that Kincaid is in for a monster target share, making him a big-time fantasy football target, and TEs heading into their second seasons usually take that leap.
Expect Kincaid to be the leading receiver this season, having already established a solid connection with Allen in his rookie year. While this article isn’t about the role that Kincaid will have for fantasy football, it also wouldn’t hurt to consider stacking Allen and Kincaid together on your rosters this season.
Projected stats
4,144 passing yards, 26 passing TDs, 13 INTs, 568 rushing yards, 7 rushing TDs
All signs point to another strong year for Allen, but it makes sense to back off some of his major stats with the offensive supporting cast he has. Seeing a decrease in passing and rushing work shouldn’t scare you away from drafting Allen at all, it’s just that his case for being the overall QB1 will probably need to come a bit more through the air instead of on the ground.
Throwing for 4,000 yards might seem like a tall task for Allen, especially when looking at the players he has to throw to. But what makes Allen special is his ability to make things work, regardless of the situation, and ‘24 will just be another success story that fits into that mold.
While there are all of these positive and optimistic things to say about Allen’s upcoming season, it also is important to be realistic. If your opinion of the new-look Bills offense is that low to the point where you can’t justify drafting Allen as one of the first QBs, then it doesn’t make sense to force that selection.
Barring injury, Allen’s workload alone puts him rare air as a QB1, something that shouldn’t be taken lightly as you look to build out your fantasy football rosters this summer.
What kind of season do you project for Allen? Will he be able to once again be a leader in fantasy football, or will the subtraction of Diggs be a move that knocks him out of the S-tier of quarterbacks?
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