Ranked 17th nationally, John Calipari and the Kentucky Wildcats travel to Baton Rouge to take on Matt McMahon’s LSU Tigers in this primetime SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Kentucky-LSU prediction and pick.
Coming off arguably their biggest win of the season at Auburn, Calipari’s Cats are gaining momentum. DJ Wagner and Adou Thiero are back healthy, providing a massive toughness boost the team desperately needed. And although Tre Mitchell has been out, Ugonna Onyenso has been a force protecting the rim down low. Currently a six seed in ESPN’s Joe Lunardi’s latest bracketology update, it is critical for Kentucky to avoid losses outside of Quad 1.
Also picking up a much-needed victory on Saturday was LSU at South Carolina. Matt McMahon’s bunch has played better than their record shows–having dropped three SEC games by four points or less. The emergence of sharpshooting sophomore Tyrell Ward has made a difference in the LSU backcourt. With three straight home games ahead of them and a NET ranking of 88, the Tigers could make a late tournament push with a few wins here.
Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Basketball Odds: Kentucky-LSU Odds
Kentucky: -4.5 (-105)
Moneyline: -182
LSU: +4.5 (-115)
Moneyline: +150
Over: 165.5 (-110)
Under: 165.5 (-110)
How to Watch Kentucky vs. LSU
Time: 9:00 pm ET/6:00 pm PT
TV: ESPN
Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)
Why Kentucky Will Cover The Spread/Win
First, we have to recognize how good Kentucky has been when DJ Wagner is fully healthy. He is the leader of the backcourt and the voice of the defense. Out of Wagner’s four missed games, the only one Kentucky was able to win was against Vanderbilt. After Auburn beat #11 South Carolina by 40 to improve to 13-0 at home this year multiple outlets were claiming Neville Arena as the best home court in all of college basketball. Kentucky beating Auburn by double digits in Neville is, in my opinion, the most impressive win of the season.
Additionally, the highly-criticized defense has turned a corner. With Wagner and Thiero healthy the physicality on this team has skyrocketed, but also Ugonna Onyenso now carries a fear factor around the rim. Kentucky just held the 37th-ranked offense (Ole Miss) to a season-low 63 points and the 22nd-ranked offense (Auburn) to just 59 points. Onyenso currently ranks as the best shot-blocker in the SEC with a block rate of 16.3% in conference play. Remarkably, Onyenso is by far the best shot blocker in the nation during this span. The next best is USC’s Joshua Morgan at 13.9.%.
Lastly, Kentucky has been unusually good on the road lately. In their last eight games, Kentucky is 1-3 at home and 3-1 on the road. Kentucky’s worst loss in conference play was on the road at 54th-ranked South Carolina. A loss to LSU would be by far Kentucky’s worst loss in SEC play (LSU is 78th).
Why LSU Will Cover The Spread/Win
Importantly, LSU’s offense over the past four weeks has been far more efficient than their full-season numbers suggest. Per BartTorvik, LSU ranks 75th in offensive efficiency and 98th in defensive efficiency. But when you filter the data to show only results from the past four weeks, LSU ranks 30th in offensive and 185th in defensive. The defensive regression is a bit skewed, as two of the games in the past four weeks were played against by far the nation's best offense, Alabama. Let’s not forget that LSU was tied 78-78 at Florida with 1:01 remaining just last week.
Additionally, Kentucky’s best defensive asset is their block rate with Onyenso down low. The Wildcats have the SEC’s highest block rate thanks to the nation’s best shot blocker. But when you look at LSU’s point distribution, they get most of their points from three. The Tigers rank 5th in the SEC in points from three and 12th in points from two. While Onyenso will surely be a factor, with how LSU plays offense his rim protection might not be as valuable as it usually is.
A huge factor will be LSU’s defense. In recent games against quality competition, the Tigers let up 82 to Florida, 109 to Alabama, 88 to Tennessee, and 109 to Alabama again. The only area the LSU defense grades well in is their three-point defense in SEC play. The Tigers are holding opponents to 32.4% in conference play which ranks 4th. If LSU can stay true to that number, they will have a chance to grab their biggest win of the season.
Final Kentucky-LSU Prediction & Pick
A big piece of the LSU offense and its top-30 efficiency rating over the past month is Will Baker’s ability to stretch the floor. At 7-0 245lb, Baker ranks 17th in the SEC in three-point shooting going 11-27 (40.7%) in conference play. Baker’s ability to stretch the floor and draw Ugonna Onyenso away from the basket will play a huge factor. They do not shoot as often, but 6-10 Derek Fountain is 9-27 (33.3%) from three and 6-10 Jalen Reed is 11-27 (40.7%) on the year.
The odds are telling opening at a short two-possession spread of just -4.5 after Kentucky just beat Auburn in the most impressive win of the SEC regular season. In their five SEC home games, the only time LSU has lost by more than 4.5 points was when Alabama went 18-44 from three. Give me the short home dog catching a letdown spot.
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Final Kentucky-LSU Prediction & Pick: LSU +4.5 (-115)
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