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After submitting promotional mainstay Gerald Meerschaert in his UFC debut, former ONE Championship two-division titleholder Reinier de Ridder (18-2) returns at UFC 311 against fan favorite Kevin Holland (26-12). It's time to continue our UFC odds series with a Kevin Holland-Reinier de Ridder prediction and pick.
Holland has become unanimously beloved in the MMA community due to his “anytime, anywhere” mentality and likable personality. ‘The Trail Blazer' has notoriously fought at a record pace, making his seventh walk in the last two years. Holland is coming off a first-round loss to Roman Dolidze at UFC 307, in which he suffered a broken rib that prematurely ended the fight.
Despite his lack of Octagon experience, de Ridder is a seasoned veteran with years of championship experience. He was widely seen as one of the best fighters outside of the UFC for several years before finally signing. While he struggled against Meerschaert, his former training partner, de Ridder ended the fight with a third-round submission, the 12th of his career.
Here are the UFC 311 Odds, courtesy of DraftKings.
UFC 311 Odds: Holland-de Ridder Odds
Kevin Holland: -110
Reinier de Ridder: -110
Over 1.5 rounds: -180
Under 1.5 rounds: +140
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Why Kevin Holland Will Win
In similar matchups at middleweight, Holland has not tended to fare well. He has been taken down on repeat by bigger wrestlers at 185 pounds and is all but certain to face a wave of takedown attempts from de Ridder. Holland will be the significantly better striker in this fight, and de Ridder, unlike the wrestlers he previously faced, is not as aggressive. De Ridder is far too willing to fight off his back foot, which is a wrestler's kryptonite.
Technique is not Holland's issue with takedown defense; the size difference has been. That momentum and force will not transfer as well if de Ridder is shooting off his back foot. De Ridder is not even that great of a wrestler to begin with. He does not set up takedowns well and tends to get desperate when his initial shots fail.
Holland, while typically conventional, can switch to southpaw, which would pose a world of issues to de Ridder. When de Ridder gets confused, he backs up, leaving him with few reliable options. He does not like being pressured and tries to create space with his knees, exposing his chin and throwing himself off balance. Everything Holland wants to find will be there if he is patient enough.Holland also has the better gas tank in this fight, especially at middleweight.
Why Reinier de Ridder Will Win
Middleweight is just not where Holland should be. Despite his 6-foot-3 frame, Holland has always looked his best at welterweight but has all but admitted he will not return there due to a lack of discipline. He wants to stay active and confessed that he loves food, two factors that make weight cuts tougher for him. His lack of size at 185 pounds almost directly led to his last loss to Dolidze, causing his ribs to pop. Like Dolidze, De Ridder will be much larger than Holland and has competed at light heavyweight before.
De Ridder has a knack for making fights gritty and ugly, grinding opponents against the fence and forcing grappling exchanges whether upright or on the ground. Holland has power he needs to evade but also tends to overswing and get wild, particularly against low-volume strikers like de Ridder.
At middleweight, Holland is just 4-5 in fights when he is taken down two or more times. Of those four wins, two were by split decision, with only one coming against a fighter still currently in the UFC. That fight was against Meerschaert, against whom de Ridder has a submission win.
Final Kevin Holland-Reinier de Ridder Prediction & Pick
This fight has two clear paths that everyone can see. If Holland keeps the fight upright, he wins. But if not, de Ridder will cruise to a listless decision victory. The issue is trying to predict which fighter will implement the game plan his opponent is clearly preparing for.
For as bad of a wrestler as Holland is, his grappling is much better than most give him credit for. He has only been submitted three times, all by elite grapplers, and is crafty off his back. His issue has been getting back to his feet, which he showed improvements in against Dolidze before breaking a rib.
While Holland has shown grappling improvements, de Ridder has not evolved as a striker in years. His striking does nothing to set up his grappling, causing all of his takedowns to come from miles away. De Ridder will be stronger in the clinch, if he can get there, but Holland is sneakily quick with his transitions. His length has also proven difficult for opponents and he is the fighter getting slightly undervalued by the market.
Final Kevin Holland-Reinier de Ridder Prediction & Pick: Kevin Holland (-110), Under 1.5 (-180)
