Alert, this is not a drill. Mitchell Robinson will be sidelined for the remainder of the 2023-24 season — and that’s a major problem for the New York Knicks. 

As of Thursday afternoon, the Knicks PR team had not announced anything about Robinson’s injury. The team's most recent public reference to Robinson came on December 11 and referenced an 8-10 week time frame for recovery. 

The Knicks are notoriously tight-lipped, so this shouldn’t be a major surprise. But Shams broke the news late Wednesday night, saying the organization has applied for a $7.8 million Disabled Player Exception because Robinson is expected to be out until next season.

Knicks' next path

Jalen Brunson, Julius Randle, RJ Barrett and Mitchell Robinson looking serious

The Knicks have been surprisingly successful since Robinson's injury on December 8. They are 4-2 without their starting center with an aggregate net rating of +9, — and those games include matchups with some above-average big men like Anthony Davis (Los Angeles Lakers) and Jusuf Nurkic (Phoenix Suns). 

Not surprisingly, the Knicks' four victories in that stretch happen to coincide with out-rebounding their opponents. Conversely, they lost both games in which they were out-rebounded. So, simply placing a stronger emphasis on boxing out and chasing down rebounds could go a long way.  

Surprisingly, New York is also collecting more blocked shots since Robinson went out (4.8 per game) than they average on the season (3.4 per game), per Basketball Reference. And the Knicks are holding opponents to a lower field goal percentage without Robinson (46.5%) than with him (47.5%). 

But Isaiah Hartenstein can only get you so far — no disrespect intended. Hartenstein is a starting-caliber center — but he’s no All-Star. Jericho Sims looked less-than-impressive while starting in place of Robinson — a strange decision probably meant to keep Hartenstein with the second until, thus avoiding a disruption of chemistry. Sims posted a negative +/- in every game he’s started except for the first game after Robinson’s injury against Utah. As if the Knicks' center situation weren't complicated enough, the team recently announced that Sims suffered a sprained ankle on December 18 and will be re-evaluated in seven to 10 days.

New York smartly responded by signing free agent and Tom Thibodeau-favorite Taj Gibson, with Gibson anointing himself the “Kurt Thomas of the team.” 

Gibson certainly adds a strong veteran presence and a unique grittiness to a unit badly in need of just that, but there’s still a void in production left by Robinson’s injury, who led the Knicks to the best net rating in offensive rebounds in the entire league. But Gibson is 38 years old, meaning he can only contribute so much.

While New York originally hoped to get by with a stop-gap solution, they must now consider alternate paths forward. Robinson will presumably return to form next year, so a long-term starter isn’t necessary. Unfortunately, Hartenstein’s strong play could result in his bolting town given that he will be an unrestricted free agent following this season, but that's a problem for next season.

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Therefore, as alluded to here, the Knicks have three options: Stick with the existing roster; add a qualified backup; or swing for the fences via trade.

Unfortunately, the Knicks have to be patient as they are in a holding pattern while opposing teams make their own roster decisions. The NBA’s trade deadline is on February 4, 2024, meaning there is ample time to gauge needs and assess solutions. There is added motivation to be competitive for teams at the lower end of the playoff race thanks to the play-in tournament. So, teams that would have historically been sellers might decide to wait a bit longer before trading away productive players.

Still, there a number of teams who we can assume will end up being sellers for various reasons, including the Chicago Bulls. Detroit Pistons, Toronto Raptors, and San Antonio Spurs. Specifically, focusing on one of the following could work out well for New York — Andre Drummond, Nikola Vucevic (Chicago), Jakob Poeltl (Toronto), James Wiseman and Isaiah Stewart (Detroit), and maybe Zach Collins (San Antonio). 

The Knicks could also explore trade discussions with the Utah Jazz for Lauri Markkanen. The prospect of the two teams reaching a deal seems unlikely given how negotiations went in the Summer of 2022 between Jazz executive Danny Ainge and Knicks’ management server a proposed Donovan Mitchell trade. The asking price for Markkanen was rumored to be astronomically high as recently as earlier this week, as Utah was allegedly looking for a similar haul to what they received for Mitchell and/or Rudy Gobert. But the trade market is as much a living and breathing thing as the stock market, and supply and demand rule the day. If the Knicks believe that Markkanen is their guy, they should proceed accordingly — although that’s unlikely given their roster when healthy. 

The Knicks have some soul-searching to do. Fortunately, they have some time before they’ll have to pick a path forward. But eventually, they’ll get to a fork in the road. Which way will they choose?