Round 19 of the Spanish La Liga will come to a close as last year’s champions Real Madrid (13-3-2) will host hopeful Valencia (5-5-8) on Thursday at Santiago Bernabeu in Madrid, Spain. It’s time to check our La Liga odds series, featuring our Real Madrid-Valencia prediction and pick.
This will be the second of three scheduled meetings between the two squads. Their recent face-off was a 1-1 deadlock in 90 minutes in the Supercopa de Espana knock-out semifinals. However, the Bats eventually fell to the Whites in the penalty shoot-out, where Eray Comert made an off-target shot and Jose Luis Gaya’s attempt was saved by Thibaut Courtois.
Real Madrid’s last game for January ended in a goalless draw, despite dominating the ball in 61% of the 90 minutes while also tallying 20 total shots and 10 corner kicks. Los Blancos have now dropped 10 points in its last seven games and are eight points behind league leaders and bitter rivals FC Barcelona.
Los Che’s run in 2023 is also unrhythmic, as Valencia only found wins against CF La Nucia and Sporting Gijon in the Copa del Rey before being knocked off by Athletic Club in the quarterfinals. Valencia sits at the 14th spot in the La Liga table, but is just one point away from relegation.
Here are the Real Madrid-Valencia soccer odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
La Liga Odds: Real Madrid-Valencia Odds
Real Madrid: -300
Over 2.5 Goals: -160
Under 2.5 Goals: +130
How to Watch Real Madrid vs. Valencia
TV: DAZN, ESPN Deportes
Stream: ESPN+, fuboTV, Paramount+
Time: 3 PM ET / 12 PM PT
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Why Real Madrid Can Beat Valencia
Carlo Ancelotti’s side hopes to close the gap on league leaders Barcelona. Los Blancos is also slotted to face Liverpool in the Round of 16 of the UEFA Champions League in three weeks’ time, so the WHites should start getting back in their fine form if they wish to give the Reds a good match in the highly coveted contest.
Prior to their draw with Real Sociedad, the stains on the Meringues’ record for January are the 2-1 .loss versus Villarreal and the 3-1 defeat versus Barcelona in the Spanish Super Cup finals. Real Madrid looks like they are back to their winning ways and aggressive playstyle so this match should be an easy job for the Vikings.
Karim Benzema, the recent Ballon d’Or holder, ranks third in the league for most goals scored at nine. Youngsters Federico Valverde and Vinicius Junior have also chipped in six each, while Rodrygo, Eder Militao, and Luka Modric have combined for 10. Real Madrid has smashed 38 goals in 18 games played, 27 coming off from assists, while only conceding 16, tied for the third-best record in the season.
Ferland Mendy, Lucas Vasquez, and David Alaba will miss time on the football field as they are dealing with injury issues. Dani Carvajal will also be back, while Aurelien Tchouameni and Luka Modric will return to their starting roles.
The 35-time La Liga champions have also won 11 and drawn five of their last 16 meetings with Valencia on home soil. The 81,000-capacity stadium will surely be roaring for its home team, so expect that Vinicius, Rodrygo, and Benzema will be delivering goals for the team.
Why Valencia Can Beat Real Madrid
After seven months of taking the steads for Los Che, Valencia confirmed that coach Gennaro Gattuso has left the club by mutual consent. Voro Gonzalez, the club’s academy coach, will take over as caretaker manager, who will also have to endure this game without the services of Jaume Domenech, Nicolas Gonzalez, and Thierry Correia.
As Valencia still searches for a new manager, they will still need to improve on both ends of the football field. In 18 matches played, they have only logged 25 goals and conceded 21, a mere +4 goal differential. They also need to make adjustments in their total shots (14.1) and corners (5.9) per game. They have been good in controlling ball possession at 58%, but the Bats still commit 131.4 lost possessions and 2.3 offsides per game. Their 17.2 tackles, 14.6 clearances, 7.1 interceptions, and 2.8 saves are among the highest numbers in the league, but they are a bit rough and scrappy, making 14.8 fouls and 2.8 yellow cards per game.
Edinson Cavani will still play as a central striker for the team, while Samuel Lino and Justin Kluivert are expected to accompany him in the flanks. Ilaix Moriba, Yunus Musah, and Hugo Guillamon are primed to take midfield duties. More effort in the defensive backline is expected from Jose Luis Gaya, Mouctar Diakhaby, Eray Comert, and Dimitri Foulquier.
Combined efforts on the offensive and defensive sides of the pitch should be the keys to the game for Valencia to win. Cavani has been in a scoring drought, so his aggressiveness in notching goals should show in this game. Kluivert, Diakhaby, and Lino should also show the same aggression. Guillamon, Gaya, Musah, and Foulquier should also find chances in the game to deliver quality passes and assists.
Final Real Madrid-Valencia Prediction & Pick
Valencia gave Real Madrid a bit of a headache earlier in January before losing on penalties. If they need to survive this game, they shall execute the same resilient performance they showed in the Spanish Super Cup.
Bookmakers predict that Real Madrid will dominate this game, and that prediction shall see true as the Meringues are just the better team on paper and on the pitch. Back the home team to come away with three points.
Final Real Madrid-Valencia Prediction & Pick: Real Madrid (-300)