Ole Miss and LSU are set for a key SEC West matchup in Week 5 at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford. We continue our college football odds series with an LSU-Ole Miss prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Rebels suffered their first loss of the season a week ago, with Alabama earning a 24-10 win. After averaging 52.7 points through three games, the 10 against the Crimson Tide were the fewest points Ole Miss had scored since their 21-7 loss to Baylor in the 2021 season.
Meanwhile, the Tigers held on for a 34-31 win over Arkansas, and have now won three in a row after the disappointing Week 1 loss to Florida State.
Here are the college football odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
College Football Odds: LSU-Ole Miss Odds
LSU: -2.5 (-115)
Ole Miss: – 2.5 (-105)
Over: 66.5 (-110)
Under: 66.5 (-110)
How to Watch LSU vs. Ole Miss
Time: 6 p.m. ET
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Why LSU Will Cover The Spread
The Jayden Daniels-led LSU offense is no joke. The Tigers rank in the top 10 in college football with 530.2 yards per game (7th), 7.6 yards per play (9th), 338.5 passing yards per game (10th), and 42.8 points per game (10th). Daniels currently has the sixth-best Heisman odds (+1600), as he's completing 72.6 percent of his passes and has 1,489 total yards and 14 touchdowns to his credit this season.
In his most recent road game against a team from Mississippi, Daniels went off with a 30-for-34, 361 passing yards, 64 rushing yards, and four-touchdown performance. Sure, Ole Miss appears to be a better team than Mississippi State, but the point is that the LSU star doesn't seem to be phased by a hostile environment. It also helps when you have elite playmakers around you. The Tigers have a whopping seven different players who have made plays of 38 or more yards this season, but it's been Daniels' main weapons – wide receivers Malik Nabers (32 RECs, 523 YDs, 5 TDs) and Brian Thomas Jr. (25 RECs, 413 YDs, 5 TDs) – who have been an absolute chore for opposing defenses.
Ole Miss gave up six plays of 20 yards or more against an Alabama offense that had been struggling to do anything on that side of the ball. LSU has more playmakers than the Crimson Tide, so the Tigers can be aggressive in taking shots down the field to try to pick up big chunks of yardage. Daniels doesn't mind throwing the deep ball, and letting him air it out to Nabers and others is a recipe for success.
Also, LSU is one of the least penalized teams in the country with only 15 penalties through four games. You have to beat them, because they aren't going to beat themselves.
Why Ole Miss Will Cover The Spread
Speaking of offenses, the Ole Miss one is capable of more than it showed against Alabama. That's a good thing since LSU's defense hasn't met the hype so far this season. The Tigers have allowed 4.4 yards per rush (97th) and 5.9 yards per play (101st), which sets up nicely for Quinshon Judkins, who is due for a breakout game after leading the SEC in rushing a season ago.
Jaxson Dart is also good enough to exploit LSU's weaknesses in the secondary. Speaking on the Tigers' defense, head coach Brian Kelly noted this week that “we’ve got young corners that don’t have a lot of experience and our safeties have to be consistent, they are trying to make up for some inexperience and trying to do a little bit too much.” Dart can go right at them, especially if he gets Tre Harris (188 YDs and 5 TDs in two games played) back in the mix from injury to join Jordan Watkins and Dayton Wade, who have combined for 40 receptions, 650 yards, and a touchdown.
The over/under is high for a reason, and it's because points will be scored in this game. Lane Kiffin is a fantastic offensive mind who should craft plenty of creative ways for Ole Miss to get back on track after the Alabama game. It all starts with Dart and his ability to take advantage of a defense that's allowing 12.7 yards per completion (95th).
That's how the Rebels can cover the spread in a game where both teams could hit 35-plus points.
Final LSU-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick
Ole Miss can keep up with LSU from a scoring standpoint, and a line move to +3 would make the Rebels an intriguing choice. However, in a close game, there's more trust in Daniels to put his team in the best position to win. The Tigers are the pick.
Final LSU-Ole Miss Prediction & Pick: LSU -2.5 (-115)