Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M Aggies will take on Matt McMahon’s LSU Tigers. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with an LSU-Texas A&M prediction and pick.

Coming off a fantastic SEC season last year, Buzz Williams and his Aggies are looking to repeat their success. It has been a rocky start, to say the least. Last year’s center 6-9 junior Julius Marble (9.1ppg, 4.1rpg) is no longer with the team and two-guard Tyrece Radford has been out with an illness. Thankfully, Radford returned last game and appears to be healthy. 

Speaking of players returning, LSU’s biggest transfer portal addition has been cleared after missing ten games. Tulane’s Jalen Cook has brought new life to an LSU team in desperate need. Vanderbilt transfer Jordan Wright and Nevada transfer Will Baker have shouldered the load so far for Matt McMahon. 

This is an interesting one, as both teams are represented analytically without the key players they now have. 

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: LSU-Texas A&M Odds

LSU: +12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: +610

Texas A&M: -12.5 (-110)

Moneyline: -950

Over: 146.5 (-110)

Under: 146.5 (-110)

How to Watch LSU vs. Texas A&M 

Time: 8:30 pm ET/ 5:30 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why LSU Will Cover The Spread

Jalen Cook. End of analysis. 

I am only joking, but yes he is that important for this team. When looking at EvanMiya’s individual player analytics you can see how big the difference is with Cook on the floor. Cook’s offensive performance rating through three games is 3.63. For context, Cook’s replacements (Mike Williams, Trae Hannibal, and Carlos Stewart) top out at an offensive rating of 1.66. 

In three games, Cook has racked up 16 assists to only 4 turnovers. His impact on this offense cannot be emphasized enough. Significantly, LSU’s worst analytical categories are their offensive steal rate and turnover rate. Both of which are bottom 100 nationally. I predict those numbers will quickly improve with every game Cook plays. In his only three games, he has averaged 31.3 minutes per game. 

Besides the season opener against the worst team in college basketball, LSU has only scored over 80 points three times. You guessed it – the three games Jalen Cook has played in. In Cook’s first game against Texas, Jordan Wright had his season high with 33 points in 31 minutes. The more Cook plays, the more the offense will open up for Jordan Wright. Whatever full-season numbers you look at right now for LSU, they are not portraying what this offense is right now.

Lastly, Texas A&M still struggles to shoot the three ball as they rank 339th in three-point percentage at 27.4%. The Aggies only have one player shooting above 35% right now, Hayden Hefner. Sure, Tyrece Radford could add some pop but he’s no Curry. If LSU can put up some sort of resistance in the rebounding department, you can see a path to a large spread cover. 

Why Texas A&M Will Cover The Spread

Remember how good Jalen Cook’s offensive performance rating was? Tyrece Radfords is even higher at 3.92. Everything I just said about how much Jalen Cook impacts the LSU offense, is the same, if not more, for Tyrece Radford and the Aggies. 

Initially, we need to talk about how insane the Texas A&M offensive rebounding is. Texas A&M currently has the highest offensive rebounding percentage in the past 25 years. The Aggies have an offensive rebounding rate of 46.1%. For context, Towson is 2nd nationally at 42.7% and Florida is 5th at 41.3%. Buzz Williams has his group rebounding on another level right now.

Secondly, you have to look at how it matches up against LSU’s ability to rebound. While Texas A&M ranks 1st in offensive rebounding rate, LSU ranks 268th in defensive rebounding rate (32.1%). Not ideal for the Tigers. LSU has given up at least 9 offensive rebounds in every single game this year. Go ahead and pencil in double-digit offensive rebounds for the Aggies right now.

Lastly, this is an LSU team that has not played a true road game since November 28th against Syracuse. That was LSU’s only road game of the year, and they lost by 23 points with 19 turnovers. After Texas A&M’s near-miraculous comeback against #1 Houston three weeks ago, you best believe the Aggie faithful will show out for the first home game of conference play.

Final LSU-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick

As I mentioned previously, it is very hard to use analytics with these teams because of how important the missing pieces have been. If I had to handicap a side, I would suggest taking the home team to cover. We have not seen LSU prove capable of performing away from home yet.

However, I will be making my LSU/Texas A&M pick on the total. With both Jalen Cook and Tyrece Radford adding so much to their respective offenses, I have to believe there is value on the over. We just saw the Houston/Texas A&M game end with 136 points scored with no Tyrece Radford. Give me the over in this one.

Final LSU-Texas A&M Prediction & Pick: O146.5 (-110)