The No. 3 seed Xavier Musketeers (27-9) face the No. 2 seed Texas Longhorns (28-8) in the Sweet Sixteen! Action tips off at 9:45 p.m. ET. Below we continue our March Madness odds series with a Xavier-Texas prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Xavier squeaked out a win over Kennesaw State before dismantling Pitt in the first two rounds. The Musketeers covered 54% of their games while 63% went over the projected point total. Texas made short work of Colgate before holding on against Penn State prior to the Sweet Sixteen. The Longhorns covered 50% of their games while 52% went under. They split the prior two matchups within the last 25 years with Texas winning the most recent meeting, 78-76 in 2019. As far as common opponents are concerned, Xavier lost to Gonzaga by four, beat West Virginia by 10, and won two of three against Creighton. Texas beat Gonzaga by 19, beat West Virginia twice, and beat Creighton by five.
Here are the Xavier-Texas March Madness odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
March Madness Odds: Xavier-Texas Odds
Xavier: +4.5 (-114)
Texas: -4.5 (-106)
Over: 149.5 (-110)
Under: 149.5 (-110)
How To Watch Xavier vs. Texas
TV: CBS
Stream: Paramount+
Time: 9:45 p.m. ET/ 6:45 p.m. PT
*Watch college basketball LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why Xavier Could Cover The Spread
Xavier features one of the most prolific offenses in the country as they average 81.2 PPG – sixth-most across Division-1. The Musketeers do an incredible job moving the ball and making extra passes. Consequently, Xavier leads the nation with 19.3 APG. Those timely passes led to a ton of open looks for the Musketeers. As a result, Xavier ranks third in three-point percentage and fourth in overall field goal percentage. Their offensive proficiency is backed up by the advanced metrics as they rank seventh in KenPom's offensive efficiency. Additionally, they play at a frantic pace as they average the 33rd-most possessions per 40 minutes. While their defense leaves a lot to be desired, the Musketeers at least rebound the ball well on the end of the floor thanks to their 50th-ranked defensive rebound rate.
Considering how many points Xavier scores, they roster a number of players who can get hot and put up huge offensive numbers. All-Big East First-Team guard Souley Boum leads the way with 16.5 PPG in addition to 4.4 RPG and 4.3 APG. The senior transfer from UTEP is a lethal outside shooter who averages 2.2 threes per game at a 41% clip. While he shot just 2-12 from three in the first round, Boum still managed to put up 31 points across those games. Although his recent shooting is concerning, Boum could snap out of his cold spell with a single three and give Texas headaches all night long.
The X-factor for Xavier is senior forward Jack Nunge. The seven-footer has an incredibly versatile game as he averages 14.1 PPG, 7.7 RPG, 1.1 threes per game, and 1.2 blocks per game. He's been the catalyst behind their first two wins, putting up 28 points, 14 rebounds, and four blocks thus far.
Why Texas Could Cover The Spread
Texas features an incredibly well-rounded team that ranks 27th in scoring and 78th in points allowed. They are highly efficient on both ends of the floor, sliding in at No. 15 in offensive efficiency and No. 10 in defensive efficiency. There isn't much Texas doesn't do well on offense as they excel at sharing the ball with the 16th-most assists per game. Those extra paces lead to a ton of great looks for their shooters and in turn, the Longhorns shoot the 27th-highest percentage from the floor. While Texas can struggle on the glass, they generate a ton of extra possessions thanks to turnovers. The Longhorns' 19.7% forced turnover rate ranks 17th in the country.
Texas' offense revolves around their stellar guard play. Senior Marcus Carr leads the way for the Longhorns with 15.8 PPG. Carr hasn't shot particularly well through the first two rounds of the tournament but has the potential to turn it on at a moment's notice. A 36% three-point shooter who averages 2.1 threes per game, Carr is a sneaky “Kemba candidate” as he is the type of guard who could will his team to a deep run.
Interestingly, Texas' second-best player doesn't even start for them. Big 12 Sixth Man of the Year Sir'Jabari Rice ranks second on the team in scoring with 12.9 PPG. The New Mexico State transfer has a ton of experience under his belt and is a lethal outside shooter. Rice was red-hot in their first-round win over Colgate when he nailed seven threes en route to 23 points. While he cooled off in their win over Penn State, Rice is one of the best “heat check” guys in the tournament.
Final Xavier-Texas Prediction & Pick
Whereas Texas has been red-hot in the first two games, Xavier hasn't been able to buy a basket. I'm expecting some regression in this one and thus see Xavier keeping things tight and potentially winning outright.
Final Xavier-Texas Prediction & Pick: Xavier +4.5 (-114)
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