Last season must have seemed like a pipe dream to Seattle Mariners players and fans alike. For the first time since 2001, the Mariners reached the postseason in 2022, snapping what was then the longest playoff drought of any team in the four major sports in the United States.
Led by reigning AL Rookie of the Year Julio Rodríguez, Seattle boasts one of the more well-rounded rosters in Major League Baseball. A return to the playoffs seems more likely than not for the Mariners in 2023. After losing in the American League Division Series last season, can the Mariners make a push toward the pennant this year?
3. Will Jarred Kelenic figure it out at the plate?
Jarred Kelenic could not have imagined a worse start to his MLB career. A consensus top-10 prospect in baseball prior to the 2021 season, Kelenic has more than struggled to establish himself with the Mariners at the big-league level.
Since making his debut with Seattle in May of 2021, Kelenic has a dreadful .168 batting average in 500 major league at-bats. At times he's looked like he's never swung a bat before. At other times, he has shown flashes of that top prospect Mariner fans dreamed of when he was included in the trade package that sent Edwin Diaz to the New York Mets.
Despite the average, Kelenic's defense and power numbers give the Mariners some positives to hang their hats on. In 388 innings in the outfield last season, Kelenic collected a 2.7 defensive WAR according to FanGraphs. In terms of power, a quarter of Kelenic's hits with the Mariners so far are home runs.
It's hard to call 2023 Kelenic's last chance to prove himself with the Mariners. After all, he's still just 23 years old. With Seattle having its sights on being a consistent playoff contender though, it can't afford to give Kelenic too many chances in the bigs without him performing to expectations.
The good news for Mariners fans? Kelenic has looked fantastic in spring training, racking up a 1.311 OPS and eight extra-base hits in 39 at-bats. One of the corner outfield spots in Seattle is still Kelenic's job to lose. Will 2023 finally be the year he breaks out?
2. Can the starting rotation replicate 2022 success?
The Seattle Mariners had one of the best pitching staffs in baseball in 2022. Led by former AL Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, Mariners pitching ranked eighth in team ERA last season.
The addition of Luis Castillo at the trade deadline, as well as the breakout seasons of Logan Gilbert and George Kirby, sets up Seattle's rotation very nicely for 2023 and beyond.
Gilbert and Kirby are the x-factors. While they both enjoyed fine seasons in 2022, the two have combined for just 81 starts in the big leagues. If the norm for at least one of them is their numbers last season, the Mariners will fall in love with their rotation even more. If both of them replicate their 2022 numbers or improve them, AL hitters beware.
Having horses in Castillo and Ray paired with potential all-stars in Gilbert and Kirby, there's no reason why the Mariners rotation can't repeat its successes from last season.
Add in the fact that this rotation is backed by a top bullpen (sixth in bullpen ERA last season), and the Mariners have a chance to have the best pitching staff in the MLB in 2023.
1. Do the Mariners have enough to win the division?
The AL West has been dominated by the Houston Astros over recent years. The defending World Series champions have won five of the last six division crowns, with the lone year they haven't in the last six being the shortened 2020 season.
The expansion of the postseason last year made it easier for non-division-winning teams to reach the playoffs. It worked out for one of the first six-seeds, as the Philadelphia Phillies carried the worst record among NL playoff teams into the World Series.
With that, an argument can be made that winning the division doesn't mean as much to teams anymore. On the flip side, winning the division means having a better chance at home-field advantage throughout the playoffs.
The Mariners haven't won the AL West since 2001. Now that the team and fans have a taste of the playoffs, becoming the team to beat in the division should be the next goal.
The Astros are still heavily favored to win the AL West this season, but this year is the first that you wouldn't be looked at as crazy by picking the Mariners to win it.
The Mariners have the depth, star power, and balanced roster on paper to be a consistently dangerous team from Opening Day to the end of October. Will it show on the field?
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