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The Miami Marlins travel to Busch Stadium to take on the St. Louis Cardinals for the start of a three game series on Monday night. This game will continue our MLB odds series as we hand out a Marlins-Cardinals prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
These two teams played eachother already as the Cardinals dropped three of four to the Marlins in Miami earlier this month. In the series, the Cardinals hit .283 as a team with 18 extra base hits. Willson Contreras was 9-15 in the four games with four doubles and a home run to lead the Cardinals. Nolan Arenado had five hits and they all went for extra bases as he also drove one out of the park. Nolan Gorman and Jordan Walker were the other home run hitters for St. Louis. On the mound, the Cardinals had a 7.02 ERA and 1.86 WHIP in the four games. St. Louis struggled in a massive way on the mound last time they played Miami.
The Marlins were able to hit .324 during the four game series against St. Louis. Jorge Soler had seven hits to lead the Marlins while Luis Arraez was right behind him with six hits. Jesus Sanchez, Garrett Cooper, and Jacob Stallings all hit home runs in the series. In those four games, the Marlins drew 16 walks and struck out just 23 times. They put up double-digit runs in two of the four games. On the mound, the Marlins pitched just okay. They had a 4.50 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, but they did have a K/9 of 11.0.
Jesus Luzardo and Miles Mikolas will be the starting pitchers in this game.
Here are the Marlins-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cardinals Odds
Miami Marlins: -1.5 (+155)
St. Louis Cardinals: +1.5 (-184)
Over: 8.5 (-115)
Under: 8.5 (-105)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Cardinals
TV: Bally Sports Florida, Bally Sports Midwest
Stream: MLB TV subscription
Time: 7:45 PM ET/4:45 PM PT
*Watch MLB games LIVE with fuboTV (click for a free trial)*
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Luzardo already has a start against the Cardinals and he pitched extremely well. In the game, he went six innings allowed just five hits and struck out eight in the Marlins blowout victory. Luzardo has been pitching his best as of late, so he will come into this game with a lot of confidence. In his last five starts, Luzardo has 31 2/3 innings pitched, four earned runs allowed on 19 hits, and 40 strikeouts. His WHIP in that span is well below 1.00, as well. Luzardo is making his first start after the All-Star break, but as long as there is no rust, the Marlins should cover this spread.
The Marlins have already faced Mikolas this season. They were able to hand him the loss as they scored four runs on four hits as Mikolas threw 6 1/3 innings. The Marlins would like to be able to get a few more hits off Mikolas in this game, but they should see the ball well. Mikolas is allows opponents to bat .270 off him this season and .284 at home. Those are some high averages, so Miami should be able to hit the ball around a little bit.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
Mikolas has had an up and down season, but he is on one of his better streaks. In his last two starts, Mikolas has thrown 10 innings, struck out eight, walked none and allowed just four hits. That kind of command is going to be beneficial for any pitcher. If Mikolas can limit the free passes and keep the Marlins off balance at the plate, the Cardinals should cover this spread.
Yes, the Cardinals are facing a pitcher that dominated them earlier this month. However, that game was in Miami. This game is in St. Louis and Luzardo is significantly worse on the road. Luzard has an ERA that is more than two runs higher when pitching on the road. Opponents are also batting 87 points better off Luzardo when the Marlins are away from home. If the Cardinals can take advantage of a pitcher that is clearly not comfortable in road stadiums, they should cover this spread.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
The Cardinals have lost seven of Mikolas' last eight starts. Luzardo is becoming one of the better pitchers in the national league and should be able to have a repeat performance in this game. I expect the Marlins to come out and win the game while covering the spread with Luzard on the mound.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Marlins -1.5 (+155), Over 8.5 (-115)
