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The New York Mets hit the road for the final day of the regular season to take on the Atlanta Braves. Below we will continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Braves prediction and pick. We will also let you know how to watch the game.
This game has a lot of playoff implications. Monday will be a double-header, and both teams are in danger of missing the playoffs. If the either team wins just one game, they are in. If one team gets swept, they are out, and the Arizona Diamondbacks are in. Needless to say, this is a massive game.
Mets-Braves Projected Starters
Tylor Megill vs. Spencer Schwellenbach
Tylor Megill (4-5) with a 3.98 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 72.1 innings pitched, 83K/30BB, .226 oBA
Last Start: vs. Philadelphia Phillies: No Decision, 4 innings, 4 hits, 1 run, 2 walks, 6 strikeouts
2024 Road Splits: 5 starts, 4.81 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 24.1 innings pitched, 32K/11BB, .232 oBA
Spencer Schwellenbach (8-7) with a 3.47 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 116.2 innings pitched, 122K/23BB, .230 oBA
Last Start: vs. New York Mets: Win, 7 innings, 3 hits, 1 earned, 1 walk, 4 strikeouts
2024 Home Splits: 10 starts, 3.62 ERA, 1.02 WHIP, 59.2 innings pitched, 65K/8BB, .228 oBA
Here are the MLB Odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Braves Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-164)
Moneyline: +130
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+136)
Moneyline: -154
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
How to Watch Mets vs. Braves
Time: 1:10 PM ET/10:10 AM PT
TV: ESPN2
Stream: fuboTV (Free Trial)
Why The Mets Will Cover The Spread/Win
New York needs to be stellar on the mound because they have a tough matchup at the plate. The good news is the Braves have Tylor Megill on the mound and he is hot lately. In his last five starts, the Mets are 5-0. Megill himself has a 1.78 ERA through 25.1 innings pitched. In those innings, Megill has allowed just 17 hits, and struck out 28. He is pitching well, and the Mets are benefitting from it. If he can continue throwing the ball well, the Mets will win this game.
Megill is a pitcher that gets stronger as the game goes on, so he just needs to limit the damage the first time through the lineup. When opposing hitters face Megill for the second time they are batting .200. That average drops to .159 the third time through the order. As long as Megill can limit the damage the first time through the order, the Mets will have success in this first game.
Why The Braves Will Cover The Spread/Win
Schwellenbach is the guy the Braves want on the mound in a big game; if it can't be Chris Sale. Schwellenbach is having an awesome season, and the Braves really need that to continue in this game. He is pitching well at the right time for the Braves. In September, Schwellenbach has a 2.73 ERA in five starts. In his last three starts, he is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and 19 innings pitched. With the way he is throwing, there is a lot of reasons to be confident in the Braves.
Schwellenbach's last start was against the Mets, and it was very good. In fact, it was technically the first game of this series. It should not be a surprise that he pitched well, though. Schwellenbach has dominated the Mets this season. In his two starts, he has thrown 14 innings, allowed just five hits, struck out 15, walked one, and his ERA is 0.64. As long as he continues to pitch as he is, the Braves will clinch their playoff spot.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick
This game will decide which team definitely makes the playoffs. I think that team will be the Braves. Schwellenbach has dominated the Mets, and he is pitching well lately. I am expecting that to continue Monday. I will take the Braves to win this game straight up Monday afternoon.
Final Mets-Braves Prediction & Pick: Braves ML (-154)
