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The first ever NFL game to take place on Black Friday will kick off this week when the Miami Dolphins travel to East Rutherford, New Jersey to take on the New York Jets. These teams could not be going in more polar opposite directions at the moment. The Dolphins, fresh off a 20-13 win over the Las Vegas Raiders, are 7-3, lead the AFC East by 1.5 games over the second-place Buffalo Bills, have a +67 point differential which ranks third in the AFC behind only the Bills and the Baltimore Ravens, and have scored the most points of any team in the NFL.
The New York Jets, on the other hand, are sputtering, and really have done so ever since Aaron Rodgers tore his Achilles on the fourth play of their season. Despite boasting a tenacious defense that ranks seventh in the NFL in EPA per play allowed this season, the Jets are 4-6 on the season with a -54 point differential. They have scored 150 points on the season, and only the New England Patriots and the New York Giants have scored fewer points. The Jets have gotten supbar play from quarterback Zach Wilson, prompting head coach Robert Saleh to finally bench him and play Tim Boyle in his place.
Things look bleak for the Jets, but they are only two games back from the Pittsburgh Steelers for a Wild Card spot. Their season isn't over yet. The Dolphins have to keep winning to stay atop the AFC East. This is a big game for both teams, so much so that it warrants some bold Dolphins Week 12 predictions.
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Tyreek Hill accrues at least 150 receiving yards
This may not seem so bold because Tyreek Hill has already done this four times this season, including in Week 1 where he racked up 215(!) yards in a single game.
Yes, the Jets have arguably the best corner in the game in Sauce Gardner and another very good and underrated corner in DJ Reed. Yes, they rank ninth in the NFL in EPA per dropback allowed. They are a very stingy and very good defense. But they've also given up some huge games to number-one receivers.
In Week 1, Stefon Diggs had 10 receptions on 13 targets for 102 yards and a touchdown. CeeDee Lamb the next week went for 143 yards while catching 11 of his 14 targets. AJ Brown racked up 131 yards against the Jets after catching seven of his nine targets. Keenan Allen and Davante Adams went for 77 and 86 yards against the Jets, respectively, too.
Diggs did get shut down in the Bills' rematch with the Jets last week. He only caught four balls for 27 yards. But these teams move their alpha receivers around to avoid them trying to beat these stud corners downfield consistently. No one is better at giving his receivers mismatches than Mike McDaniel. Tyreek Hill can win anywhere at any time. He can absolutely have a field day on Friday.
No team scores more than 20 points
It's easy to see how the Jets fail to exceed 20 points. For one, they're starting Tim Boyle at quarterback. Boyle has made three starts in his NFL career. Those were with the Detroit Lions in 2021. The Lions scored 10, 16, and 29 points in those starts, and 22 of those 29 points came after Detroit was down 38-7.
Another reason? The Jets have scored 20 points in a game four times this season. One of those required a walk-off punt return touchdown and another came via a Breece Hall touchdown the Eagles gave the Jets to get the ball back late in that game.
Really, this prediction is that the Jets hold the Dolphins below 20 points. It isn't that crazy. As mentioned before, the Jets have a very good defense. They held the Bills (in Week 1) and Eagles (in Week 6) below 20 points and those are two of the best offenses in the league.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, scored just 20 points against a Raiders defense that is playing pretty well and is 13th in EPA per play allowed. They scored 20 points against the Bills, 17 against the Eagles, and 14 against the Chiefs. Those teams rank fourth, 12th, and 18th in EPA per play allowed. The Jets are seventh. The Dolphins have been slowed down by better defenses this season. The Jets could follow suit on Friday.
