Chris Jans and the Mississippi State Bulldogs travel to Gainesville to take on Todd Golden’s Florida Gators in this crucial SEC matchup. Below we will continue our college basketball odds series with a Mississippi State-Florida prediction and pick.

Since returning from injury, first-team All-SEC star Tolu Smith has yet to enjoy the success he was hoping for. After starting 1-3 in conference play, Mississippi State bounced back on Saturday at Vanderbilt winning 68-55. Do not be fooled, the Bulldogs are better than their record suggests. 

In Gainesville, Todd Golden is searching for a desperately needed Quad 1 win (0-6). After suffering an inevitable loss at Thompson Boling Arena, Florida responded with a double-digit road win over Missouri, 79-67. Remember, the Gators were a possession away from beating Kentucky. Can they finally break through, or will the fighting Tolu Smiths prevail?

Here are the college basketball odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

College Basketball Odds: Mississippi State-Florida Odds

Mississippi State: +3.5 (-105)

Moneyline: +150

Florida: -3.5 (-115)

Moneyline: -182

Over: 153.5 (-110)

Under: 153.5 (-110)

How to Watch Mississippi State vs. Florida

Time: 8:30 pm ET/ 5:30 pm PT

TV: SECN

Stream: fuboTV (Click for free trial)

Why Mississippi State Will Cover The Spread/Win

First, Todd Golden’s record against top competition has to be mentioned. Since arriving in Gainesville last year, Golden’s record against Quad 1 competition is 2-19 (10.5%). One can argue the record is misleading since nine of those 19 losses came by five points or less. However, one can also argue that Florida struggles in close late-game situations. With a spread indicating a one-possession game, the trend favors Mississippi State.

Additionally, through five SEC games Florida’s defense has not been able to take away the strengths of the Mississippi State offense. The Gators allow the least amount of points from three but also allow the most from two. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs attempt the least amount of threes and get the highest percentage of their total points from two. A match made in heaven for Chris Jans.  

Individual matchups are always a major factor in Mississippi State games due to the defensive ability of Cam Matthews and DJ Jeffries. Per EvanMiya’s defensive performance ratings, Matthews and Jeffries are both top five individual defenders in the SEC. Based on lineups from the past five games, Florida will run either Will Richard or Riley Kugel at the three. Mississippi State’s ability to take away Richard and Kugel could be the difference. 

Why Florida Will Cover The Spread/Win

Initially, the Gators' level of play at home has to be recognized. Florida’s only loss at home this year was a heartbreaking two-point loss to Kentucky. Not only has Florida been stellar at home, but Mississippi State has yet to win a true road game this year. The Bulldogs have only played three true road games losing to Georgia Tech, South Carolina, and Kentucky. Now heading on the road where they struggle, with potentially the biggest home game of the season (vs #8 Auburn) looming around the corner. Dare I say look-ahead spot?

Importantly, both Riley Kugel and Micah Handlogten are playing full of confidence. After playing a season-low four minutes in the blowout loss to Ole Miss, Kugel has been massive for the Gators perimeter play. Kugel is now on a three-game run with at least two steals and two three-pointers made. Also, Handlogten is coming off his second double-double (10pts, 13reb) of the year on a season-high 30 minutes. That’s not all – 6-11 freshman Alex Condon is quietly top ten in the SEC in both rebounding and block rate. Florida’s ability to rebound will be critical.

Lastly, Mississippi State is not a team that will take advantage of free throws. Through five SEC games, the Bulldogs rank last in the conference shooting just 61.0% from the line. If this is indeed a close game down the stretch, advantage Florida. In his first three games back, Tolu Smith shot 20-24 (83.3%) from the free throw line. But in his past three games, Smith has gone 16-31 (51.6%). Last game against Vanderbilt, Jerry Stackhouse started implementing the ‘hack-a-Tolu’ strategy. The Commodores were not able to mount a comeback, but Smith did end the night 7-13 from the line. 

Final Mississippi State-Florida Prediction & Pick

This game is a rare case where both teams have strong trends going against them. Todd Golden has not been able to win big games and Mississippi State has not been able to win on the road. Something has to give. 

Based on the defensive numbers there is a path for Tolu Smith to have a huge night. However, Florida has the home court, free throw, three-point shooting, and rebounding advantage in this matchup. This should be a closely contested battle but the Gators seem to have more paths to victory. Todd Golden wins his first Quad 1 win of this season in The Swamp.

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Final Mississippi State-Florida Prediction & Pick: Florida -3.5 (-115)