Carlos Correa is no doubt one of the best shortstops in baseball, and he is certainly going to command a huge contract as he enters free agency this offseason.

But… should he?

It seems insane to think, given that he just wrapped up yet another excellent season with a .279/.366/.485 line with 26 home runs, 34 doubles, 92 RBIs, and a 134 wRC+. Defensively, he continues to get better and just won his first Gold Glove, thanks to an Outs Above Average (OAA) of 12 and 21 defensive runs saved, which was the best among MLB shortstops by far.

And aside from a disappointing 58-game 2020 season (which, really, we could throw out for most players), Carlos Correa has averaged 21 home runs, 25 doubles, and a 131 wRC+ for six seasons.

So what's not to like about the former first-round pick and Rookie of the Year?

The biggest issue is Correa's health; he simply has a hard time staying on the field. Most concerning are the back issues that he's dealt with on and off since the 2018 season. Other injuries have been more of the freakish variety – a jammed thumb here, a fractured rib during a massage there. While it might not be entirely fair to label him “injury-prone,” the fact of the matter is that Carlos Correa has only crossed 600 plate appearances twice in his career.

If he could just stay healthy, he's a 20-20 lock, and could very well become a 30-30 player as he enters his prime, though he's yet to prove it, which isn't exactly what you're hoping for with a contract like that. The batting average is respectable and he gets on base at a solid clip. His xBA is routinely at the top of the majors if you're into that sort of thing, and his exit velocity is regularly scorching. All good stuff, especially for a shortstop.

Most teams would kill for that kind of production (and defense) from their shortstop, but still, will it be worth the $30 million a year that he's likely going to receive? For comparison's sake, the New York Mets gave Francisco Lindor a 10-year, $341 million deal. Lindor and Correa have themselves a friendly rivalry, so Carlos Correa is certainly asking for a number around there, if not more. The market has been set and that's that.

So maybe it just takes a recalibrating of the expectations that come from a contract like that. Massive, $300 million deals that pay one player at least $30 million a year are becoming the norm rather than the exception, which means we might just have to stop expecting 30 home runs, 30 doubles, and over 100 RBIs a year for that kind of money. Even a 131 average wRC+ will have to suffice at that level. Not a terrible investment by any means, but it all depends on his new team. The Dodgers? They can afford a Carlos Correa who is good-to-sometimes-great and occasionally on the shelf. The Tigers? It might just keep them mired in mediocrity.

The Astros gave Correa a qualifying offer of one year, $18.4 million, which he will no doubt decline (he's declined other lowball contract extensions from the team before), as he should. The Astros will get a compensatory draft pick for next year and Correa will get his big deal, and both sides will probably make out okay.

As for the team that does sign Correa… will it be worth it? Despite his immense talent, it feels like more of a gamble than one would prefer. For any team looking to contend sooner than later, Correa could be the missing piece. The timing could be just right, and Correa could be solid if not spectacular for the duration of his contract. But will that be enough for what his next team and its fans will expect? Probably not.

This may prove to be absurdly wrong over time, but don't feel too bad if your favorite team doesn't end up signing Carlos Correa to a mega-deal this offseason.