Baseball fans rejoice, we are just one day away from MLB Opening Day! A brand new season is among us but before we get started, let's see who could potentially be the strikeout leader for this season. With that said, let's take a look at our MLB Odds series for our 2023 regular season strikeout leader prediction and pick.
Last year it was Gerrit Cole that led the way with 257 punchouts, but there was certainly a lot of competition surrounding him inside that top-5. What separated Cole from the 5th-place Dylan Cease of the Chicago White Sox was just 30 strikeouts. That means this race could be a lot closer than people may suggest. Let's take a look at the odds and who will be the next strikeout leader for the 2023 season.
Here are the MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: 2023 Strikeout Leader
Gerrit Cole: +550
Corbin Burnes: +800
Spencer Strider: +800
Dylan Cease: +1000
Max Scherzer: +1000
Why Gerrit Cole Could Win
Gerrit Cole is atop the list for good reason. He is the reigning strikeout leader from 2022 and that was his lowest strikeout total per nine innings over the last 5 years. What he has going for him year in and year out is that he has a consistent workload.
Being as he limits walks and hits against him, he is able to pitch deep into games where he has logged at least 200 innings in four out of the last five seasons. As long as he stays healthy he will be once again in the hunt for the top spot.
Why Corbin Burnes Could Win
Corbin Burnes was electrifying just two seasons ago when he logged 13.14 strikeouts per nine innings. Since that 2021 season, he has regressed mightily to the tune of only 10.83 strikeouts per nine innings.
Even with that little bit of regression, Burnes is still an elite talent with a massive strikeout upside. He is also another candidate to have a decent workload heading into the 2023 season which should give him ample opportunities to rack up strikeouts.
Why Spencer Strider Could Win
Spencer Strider was electrifying in his rookie campaign. He was amongst the top of the league in strikeouts per nine innings with 13.81 with an incredible 38.3% strikeout rate which is unheard of considering only six players in the entire majors had better and five of those six were relievers.
The only drawback with Strider is that his workload wasn't near what the elite strikeout artists had last year. He was only able to pitch 131 2/3 innings last year and is only projected to pitch 150 innings this year. It will be a gigantic task for Strider to lead the league in strikeouts only pitching 150 innings, so we will see if the Atlanta Braves play conservatively with their young ace or if they let him loose.
Why Dylan Cease Could Win
Dylan Cease in the first half of 2022 was on his way to being at the top of the strikeout leaderboards with an incredible strikeout per nine innings with 12.90. That also made way for a disappointing second half of the season which lowered his strikeout rate mightily to only 24.8%.
This could be large to his massive walk rate in the first half of the season which was at a staggering 4.13 per nine innings. By not trying to strike out every pitcher and pitching to contact helped lower that as the season went on. If Cease pitches the way he did in the first half of 2022 he more than certainly can contend with the top but it is going to be a sight to see if he is able to achieve that this season.
Why Max Scherzer Could Win
Max Scherzer has been an elite strikeout pitcher for the majority of his time in the big leagues. Even at his current age and even in the decline of his career he is in the spot because he still can mow down batters with the best of them.
If Scherzer can stay healthy for a full season he is more than certain to be close to the top of the list in strikeouts but his recent decline in efficiency has me a bit worrisome about him being able to hit the top of this list. Batters have been making more contact against him as of late but he is still top 10 in the league in called strikes and swinging strike percentage. If he can somehow get back to form and limit the contact he has a real shot at being the strikeout king.
Final 2023 Strikeout Leader Prediction & Pick
This could very well be another closely contested race to be the strikeout leader. With that said, everything leads me to believe that Gerrit Cole would reign supreme as the strikeout king yet again this season. His workload and consistent strikeout numbers are going to be hard to match and as long as he is able to stay healthy he should get the job done again.
Final 2023 Strikeout Leader Prediction & Pick: Gerrit Cole +550
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