The Houston Astros take on the Chicago White Sox. Check out our MLB odds series for our Astros White Sox prediction and pick.
Jose Urquidy goes to the mound for the Astros, while Johnny Cueto gets the start for the White Sox.
Jose Urquidy, from June 21 through Aug. 3, made eight starts in which he was outstanding for the Astros. In those eight starts, he pitched 53 innings and allowed only 12 earned runs. That's an ERA of close to two runs, which is an elite track record. Why is Urquidy's season ERA at 3.85? He lets some starts get away from him, such as his most recent one on Aug. 9 against the Rangers. He allowed five runs in five innings, coughing up three home runs. In late May and early June, he allowed 17 runs in four consecutive starts. Are we going to see the pitcher who flourished throughout July, or will we see the pitcher who gives up the big blast and can't contain the opposition in this Monday night game in Chicago?
Johnny Cueto has a 2.91 ERA. He is the workhorse the White Sox have sorely needed this year, given the injuries to their high-end relief pitchers such as Joe Kelly. Cueto has pitched at least six full innings in each of his last eight starts, sometimes going seven innings and occasionally going eight. That has been a godsend for a team whose bullpen has been overextended for much of the year. The White Sox know what to expect when Cueto takes the ball: They're going to get close to seven innings of work, generally with two or three runs allowed. Cueto always gives the White Sox a chance to win. The obvious problem is not with Cueto himself, but with a Chicago batting order which has chronically underachieved this year. When Cueto gives up three runs in seven or eight innings, that should almost always be enough to win, but in 2022, it hasn't been. The White Sox are 7-9 in games Cueto starts this year. Given his ERA, that's a clear indictment of the White Sox' hitting this season.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Astros-White Sox MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Astros-White Sox Odds
Houston Astros: -1.5 (+128)
Chicago White Sox: +1.5 (-154)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
Why The Astros Could Cover the Spread
They're a better team, and more precisely, they get the most out of their talent. Houston beat the White Sox in the playoffs last season, and has come back and replicated its excellence the way everyone expected. The White Sox have not replicated last year's excellence and cannot be trusted to get the big hit in big games. Chicago has been playing the Royals, Rangers, and Tigers in recent weeks. Facing the Astros is a significant increase in the quality of the opponent. The White Sox usually don't handle good opponents in 2022. Jose Urquidy can match Johnny Cueto and get this game into the bullpens, where Houston figures to have an advantage.
Why The White Sox Could Cover the Spread
Johnny Cueto is a reliable pitcher who dominated the Astros in Houston a few months ago. He gives the Sox a great chance to win. On top of that, Jose Urquidy, while certainly a solid pitcher, is not a dominant one. The White Sox could tag him for a few home runs and assert themselves. What should encourage White Sox fans is that the offense finally came alive over the weekend against the Tigers. The White Sox feasted on a bad opponent, something they haven't consistently done this year. They're right in the hunt in the A.L. Central race and have everything to play for.
Final Astros-White Sox Prediction & Pick
This is a stay-away game, if only because the White Sox might be finding themselves. The White Sox are not a trustworthy team by any means, but if they're beginning a surge in the standings, you don't want to pick Houston here, especially with Urquidy and not a more proven starter on the hill. If you insist on a pick, though, lean Astros.
Final Astros-White Sox Prediction & Pick: Astros -1.5
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