The defending champion Atlanta Braves get their greatest test of the young season as the New York Mets will play host at Citi Field. Join us for our MLB odds series, where our Braves-Mets prediction and pick will be revealed to all.
After dropping two straight to the Texas Rangers over the weekend, the 10-13 Braves will look to get back on track with lefty Max Fried set to start. Fried is 2-2 with a 3.00 ERA in his four starts.
The Mets will counter with Chris Bassitt and his fabulous 3-1 record and 2.25 ERA. New York has one of the best marks in the National League at 16-7 and are 7-3 at home.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Braves-Mets odds.
MLB odds: Braves-Mets Odds
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (+168)
New York Mets: +1.5 (-205)
Over: 6.5 (-114)
Under: 6.5(-106)
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Why the Braves Could Cover the Spread
With the series loss in Texas, Atlanta continues to fail to get on a roll to begin 2022. With their longest winning streak being only two games and a continuation of mediocre play thus far, the Braves could make a huge statement starting on Monday against a division rival.
In order to do so, the offense will need to apply the pressure to a Mets' pitching staff that has experienced general success to begin the year. Atlanta has scored 89 runs through 23 games thus far, which ranks 18th in the majors.
While it hasn't all been bad for the Braves at the dish, Atlanta missed outfielder Ronald Acuna Jr., who has finally made his return from the injured list after being sidelined close to a full year with a torn ACL. Acuna is back in a lineup that has already belted 28 home runs on the season, good for second in all of baseball. Atlanta's batting average hasn't necessarily been up to par at a .229 mark, but the Braves surely have the pieces on offense to make pitchers pay.
When Fried is on the mound for the Braves, things have gone rather swell of late, as Atlanta came away victorious in his previous two starts with the ball in his left hand. Fried has faced the Mets more than most pitchers in the majors. In 11 starting appearances, Fried has pitched to the tune of a 4-3 record and a stellar 2.78 ERA.
Collectively, Fried has been one of the lone bright spots among the pitching staff in 2022, as the Braves contain a team earned-run average of 4.28, which is 23rd in the majors. Atlanta must pitch effectively against New York in this one to cover the spread, especially considering that the Braves can make up some serious ground with a few wins in this hotly contested series.
Why the Mets Could Cover the Spread
New York has begun the 2022 season on an absolute tear. Not to mention, the Mets are close in tying last season's mark of when they saw themselves 11 games above .500 at one point. While New York fizzled out like a party in its waning moments after the clock strikes midnight by going 22-38 the rest of the way, the 2022 Mets seem to be here to stay. With a six-game lead on the defending World Series champs from a season ago, New York has the opportunity to severely shake up the standings during the first week of May.
The Mets are one of the few squads around America that is lethal with the bats and when on the mound. New York kills teams by finding ways to reach base, ranking first in on-base percentage and second in batting average with the offensive group hitting .262. New York is also one of the more disciplined teams at the plate with just 7.7 strikeouts per game on average.
With the lumber cracking at a high rate, the amount of pressure on the shoulders of the pitchers is as low as it has ever been. The Mets are third in the majors with a 2.99 ERA, demonstrating why they have been so tough to beat to begin the campaign.
A big part of New York's success has been the pitching dominance of RHP Chris Bassitt, who last tossed up a gem versus the St. Louis Cardinals in which he fired six scoreless frames and earned his team a 3-0 victory. Surprisingly enough, Bassitt has never pitched against the Braves, so this will mark the first time he has faced Atlanta in his eight-year career.
Final Braves-Mets Prediction & Pick
When looking at the spread, it is a bit of a shock to see that the Braves are favored in this one given they're the visiting team and the amount of inconsistency they have showed up to this point. The wise pick should be New York in this matchup, as the Mets have looked more like a championship contender through 23 games. Take the Mets in this NL East contest.
Final Braves-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets +1.5 (-205)
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