MLB Odds: Braves vs. Phillies prediction, odds and pick – 9/23/2022
The Atlanta Braves will continue their four-game series with the Philadelphia Phillies as the two NL East teams meet again at Citizens Bank Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Braves-Phillies prediction and pick.
The Phillies blanked the Braves 1-0 on Thursday night in what could be a playoff preview. Now, they will try and get another win. The game’s only run came in the second inning when Matt Vierling hit a sacrifice fly to center to score a run. Amazingly, it was all Philadelphia needed to beat Atlanta. Max Fried threw five innings in a losing effort, allowing one earned run on five hits with eight strikeouts and one walk. However, he labored through the at-bats, throwing 107 pitches. Ranger Suarez pitched efficiently, tossing six shutout innings with five hits allowed with four strikeouts. Then, Zach Eflin tossed 1 2/3 shutout innings, and Jose Alvarado closed it with 1 1/3 shutout innings.
The Phillies left seven runners on the basepaths. Stunningly, the Braves left nine runners on base. Atlanta had runners on first and second with one out in the first and first and third with one out in the third and failed to score on both occasions.
Jake Odorizzi takes the mound for the Braves today. Odorizzi is 5-5 with a 4.04 ERA. Recently, he went 4 2/3 innings while allowing one earned run on two hits. Also, Odorizzi is 0-0 with a 5.40 ERA in two starts in September.
Aaron Nola takes the hill for the Phillies. Nola is 9-12 with a 3.38 ERA. In a recent start, he tossed seven innings while allowing four earned runs on seven hits with eight strikeouts. Nola is 0-1 with a 2.87 ERA over three starts in September. Also, he is 2-2 with a 4.45 ERA in four starts against the Braves.
The Braves lead the season series 9-7 but are 3-4 at Citizens Bank Park.
Here are the Braves-Phillies MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Braves-Phillies Odds
Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-162)
Philadelphia Phillies: -1.5 (+134)
Over: 7 (-120)
Under: 7 (-102)
Why The BravesCould Cover The Spread
The Braves need to score. Yesterday, they left multiple runners on base, failed to capitalize on their opportunities, and could not give Fried the support he needed. Austin Riley and Dansby Swanson are the players to watch.
Riley is batting .280 with 37 home runs, 92 RBIs, and 85 runs. However, he has struggled in September, hitting .225 (16 for 71) with five home runs, seven RBIs, and nine runs over 19 games in September. Riley is batting .383 (23 for 60) with one home run, four RBIs, and seven runs over 16 games against the Phillies this year. He is hitting .440 (11 for 25) with one RBI and three runs over seven games at Citizens Bank Park.
Swanson is batting .278 with 21 home runs, 88 RBIs, and 93 runs. Alternatively, he has also struggled in September, hitting .221 (17 for 77) with four home runs, 11 RBIs, and eight runs over 19 games in September. Swanson is batting .317 (20 for 63) with one home run, five RBIs, and seven runs against the Phillies this season. However, he has not fared well in Philadelphia, hitting .148 (4 for 27) with three runs over seven games at Citizens Bank Park.
The Braves will cover the spread if they get good pitching from Odorizzi and their bullpen. Additionally, they need their hitters to show up, with Riley and Swanson leading the charge.
Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread
The Phillies hold the last wildcard spot in the National League and have done it with a multi-faceted offense this year. They have Bryce Harper back and need to get hot as the playoffs get closer.
Harper is batting .290 with 17 home runs, 57 RBIs, and 60 runs over 87 games. Significantly, he is hitting .286 (10 for 35) with one home run, four RBIs, and four runs over eight games against the Braves. Harper needs to step up his game this month, as he is batting .154 (10 for 65) with two home runs, five RBIs, and eight runs over 17 games.
Rhys Hoskins has been a quiet force for the Phillies this year, batting .246 with 28 home runs, 72 RBIs, and 76 runs. Unfortunately, he has struggled in September, hitting .207 (12 for 58) with two home runs, six RBIs, and six runs over 15 games in the month. Hoskins has also struggled against Atlanta, batting .192 (10 for 52) with two home runs, five RBIs, and six runs over 14 games.
The Phillies will cover the spread if they get a good outing out of Nola. Likewise, they need Harper, Hoskins, and the rest of the Phillies’ lineup to score some runs.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick
The Phillies could still win this game. However, it does not seem like they are capable of dominating. The Braves are fighting for a chance at the NL East and must rebound from last night’s game. Expect them to stick around and cover the spread.
Final Braves-Phillies Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: +1.5 (-162)