The Milwaukee Brewers and Arizona Diamondbacks will begin a four-game series in Arizona on Thursday night. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Brewers-Diamondbacks prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Milwaukee Brewers own a 69-60 record, good for second place in the NL Central, six games behind St. Louis for the division lead. Milwaukee is just two and a half games out of the final NL Wild Card spot but has played better of late with a 6-4 record in their last 10.
Arizona is on its way back to respectability, with a 61-68 record, tied for third place in the NL West. While the playoffs are completely out of the question for this group, there are tons of exciting young players getting extended looks over the season's final month.
Here are the Brewers-Diamondbacks MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Diamondbacks Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+122)
Arizona Diamondbacks: +1.5 (-146)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
Milwaukee is sending one of their best pitchers, Brandon Woodruff, to the mound in this one. Woodruff has gone 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 108.2 innings across 20 starts. The right-hander has struck out 132 batters in his 108.2 innings. Woodruff has struck out 29.6% of batters faced, which ranks in the 86th percentile while walking just 7.2% of the batters he has faced. Batters have hit just .224 against Woodruff, with a 1.13 WHIP. Woodruff's best pitch is his four-seam fastball, holding batters to a .193 batting average, with 64 of his 132 strikeouts coming from the pitch.
Milwaukee's bullpen has been largely average, ranking 16th with a 3.90 ERA on the season. Airbending reliever Devin Williams owns a 1.80 ERA with nine saves and 78 strikeouts in 50 innings. Glancing at Williams' Baseball Savant page is like looking at a firetruck, with Williams ranking at or near the top of almost every pitching leaderboard. Brad Boxberger is in the midst of a career resurgence, with a 2.76 ERA in his 54 innings.
Milwaukee's offense has been pretty good this season, scoring 589 runs. Rowdy Tellez leads the team with 27 home runs, while Willy Adames and Hunter Renfroe have both hit 26 and 23 home runs, respectively. Andrew McCutchen has enjoyed his typical success this season, with 21 doubles and 14 home runs. Christian Yelich has enjoyed a different sort of season for himself, with only 11 home runs, but has added 16 stolen bases, 19 doubles, and four triples. Milwaukee ranks third in the league with 181 home runs and fourth with 467 walks.
Why The Diamondbacks Could Cover The Spread
Arizona has gained respect again in the league and recently picked up the 2023 option for manager Torey Lovullo. Merrill Kelly, enjoying a career season, will get the ball tonight. Kelly has gone 11-5 with a 2.97 ERA in his 26 starts, throwing 157.2 innings. Kelly has struck out 21.4% of batters he has faced while walking just 7.6% of those batters. The right-hander's five-pitch mix has baffled hitters, highlighted by his cutter, which has held batters to a .179 batting average. Batters have also struggled against Kelly's fastball, with an expected batting average of just .191. Kelly has only allowed 10 home runs on the season.
Arizona's bullpen has been nothing to write home about. Mark Melancon has struggled in his closing duties, with a 5.11 ERA. Veteran Ian Kennedy has pitched to a 3.19 ERA in his 47 appearances. Lefty journeyman Joe Mantiply, the first-time All-Star, has pitched to a brilliant 2.77 ERA in 58 innings. Mantiply has walked a remarkably low 1.9% of batters he has faced, ranking in the 100th percentile, and by far and away the best mark for Mantiply's career.
Arizona's offense has not enjoyed much success, instead ranking towards the middle in most categories. Still, slugging first baseman Christian Walker has been great, leading the team with 30 home runs, 73 RBI, and 62 walks. Ketel Marte leads the team with 34 doubles, adding 10 home runs and a .333 on-base percentage. The versatile Josh Rojas leads the team with a .276 batting average, belting seven home runs and 20 doubles in addition. Rojas also leads the team with 17 stolen bases. Daulton Varsho is second on the team with 18 home runs and 58 RBI, adding eight stolen bases. Rookie Stone Garrett has been electric in his seven games, hitting two home runs and three doubles en route to a .407 batting average. Rookie outfielder Alek Thomas has hit eight home runs with 15 doubles in his 95 games this season. Arizona is one of the better on-base teams in the league, with 449 walks that rank seventh in the league. Other than that, Arizona is towards the middle of most offensive categories.
Final Brewers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick
Hard to bet against Woodruff in this situation.
Final Brewers-Diamondbacks Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+122), over 7.5 (-102)
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