The Milwaukee Brewers take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Dodgers prediction and pick.
Eric Lauer goes to the bump for the Brewers, while Julio Urias will start for the Dodgers.
Eric Lauer has a 3.58 ERA, but what is more important than that fact is that he pitched a very strong game against these same Dodgers last week in Milwaukee. Lauer went seven innings, giving up just two runs on only four hits. Milwaukee knows it has an ace-level starter in Corbin Burnes, and a very good front-end rotation starter in Brandon Woodruff. Getting superb performances from Lauer could be an equation-changer for the Brewers as they try to catch the red-hot St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central and overtake the San Diego Padres in the National League wild card race. Lauer has given up more than three earned runs in only one of his last nine starts. He has given up just 15 earned runs in his last eight starts for the Brewers.
Julio Urias has a 2.40 ERA, third-best among National League starters. Urias watched on Sunday as his Dodger teammates hammered Sandy Alcantara of the Miami Marlins. The beatdown caused Alcantara’s ERA — which had been under two runs for months — to rise above 2.15 runs. This has enabled Tony Gonsolin to temporarily take over the ERA lead among National League starters. Urias is right behind Gonsolin and Alcantara. If Alcantara struggles down the stretch (the Dodgers will get another look at him later this week in Miami), a Dodger would be in position to win the N.L. Cy Young Award. Urias, should he remain locked in, will be part of that conversation.
Urias has simply been brilliant since a bad outing versus the Cubs on July 10. In his six starts since that disaster, Urias has pitched 38 innings and allowed only four runs with only four walks. He hasn’t allowed a home run since July 16. He has allowed one run in the month of August. He is checking all the boxes in terms of doing what a starting pitcher should do. There isn’t a better starting pitcher in the National League right now. If this is the level of performance Urias delivers for the rest of the season, he will make a strong run at the Cy Young if Alcantara doesn’t restore order.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-DodgersMLB odds.
MLB Odds: Brewers-Dodgers Odds
Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (+105)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (-126)
Over: 8 (-106)
Under: 8 (-114)
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
Eric Lauer is pitching extremely well, and the Brewer starters in general are doing well. Milwaukee split a four-game series with the Dodgers last week because its pitching held up under pressure. If Lauer could contain the Dodgers a week ago, he can certainly do so once again in this game. Milwaukee knows it has to stay close to the Cardinals in the division race, and to the San Diego Padres in the wild card race. The Brewers need this game a lot more than the Dodgers do. Urgency matters.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
Julio Urias is so dialed in right now that it’s very hard to bet against him. If Urias goes six or seven innings and allows only one run, the Dodgers have to like their chances. Eric Lauer did really well against Dodger hitters last week; the odds are against Lauer here. It’s very hard to shut down the Dodgers twice in six days. Los Angeles hammered Sandy Alcantara on Sunday. If it can do that, it can certainly rough up Lauer on Monday.
Final Brewers-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
Julio Urias is pitching so well right now that it’s hard to bet against him. Also, it’s unlikely that Eric Lauer is going to smother the Dodgers twice in one week. Moreover, the Brewers are flying to the West Coast after a taxing weekend series against the Cubs. This game sets up well for L.A.
Final Brewers-Dodgers Prediction & Pick: Dodgers -1.5