The Milwaukee Brewers take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Brewers Padres prediction and pick.

 

Adrian Houser starts for the Brewers, while Nick Martinez gets the ball for the Padres.

Adrian Houser has a 3.22 ERA. He has had a very uneven season. On one hand, he has given up 12 runs in two ugly outings against the Reds, but in his most recent outing, he limited the defending World Series champion Braves to just four hits and one unearned run in six strong innings. Houser's defense has not played well in his recent starts, but he has also not been able to pitch out of jams very well. In the latter half of April, Houser was superb. In a series of three straight starts totaling 17 2/3 innings, he allowed only four runs. Then came the two bad starts against the Reds and then the bounce-back effort versus the Braves. It's hard to know which direction Houser will go in any start he makes. This is a complicating factor in any Brewers Padres prediction based on the existing MLB odds.

Nick Martinez has a 3.89 ERA. He has allowed more than two runs in only two of his seven starts this season. That's the good news. On the other hand, Martinez has pitched beyond the fifth inning in only one of his seven starts. He has been, more or less, a five-inning, two-run pitcher for San Diego. The Padres' bullpen gets a workout when he takes the mound. This is a nuance worth paying attention to when you make a Brewers Padres pick.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Brewers-Padres MLB odds.

MLB Odds: Brewers-Padres Odds

Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+158)

San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-192)

Over: 8 (-102)

Under: 8 (-118)

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Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread

Adrian Houser probably deserves a slight edge over Nick Martinez in the pitching matchup, though neither pitcher merits an overwhelming degree of trust. Martinez's inability to regularly pitch into the sixth inning is certainly noticed by the Brewers, who will try to work counts and wait for a hittable pitch. They will get some good looks at Martinez if they are patient in this game.

The bigger reason to take the Brewers here is that they just got whacked by the Nationals on Sunday, whereas the Padres just swept the Giants in San Francisco. Over 162 games, course corrections happen all the time. The Brewers are going to be motivated after their stumble against Washington, while the Padres might be a little emotionally drained after their intense and successful weekend versus the Giants.

Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread

After sweeping the Giants in San Francisco, the Padres know they are good. They know they belong in the National League West race. They know they are built for this fight, because they have won 27 games without Fernando Tatis. San Diego is proving that it can win without a superstar … and that's partly because it has a second superstar to shoulder the workload. Manny Machado is a leading contender for National League Most Valuable Player. Hitting, fielding, leadership, Machado is doing it all for this ballclub. He is setting the right tone and creating so much confidence in the clubhouse. The Padres have done a lot to address the lack of chemistry they had last season. This team is humming with efficiency and is hard to bet against right now.

Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick

If you need to bet on this game, just know that this is a good stay-away spot. However, if you really have to choose, the Padres probably will be a little drained from their San Francisco sweep. The Brewers can feast on Martinez, a back-end rotation man, and win this game.

Final Brewers-Padres Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5