The Chicago Cubs and St. Louis Cardinals will square off on Saturday night at Busch Stadium in St. Louis. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Cubs-Cardinals prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Chicago Cubs are 56-76, way out of a playoff spot with a little over a month to go in the season. Everything has gone wrong for this club, and the rebuild seems to be in its infant stages. A couple of holdover stars and a likable manager in David Ross, plus deep pockets, should help to speed up this rebuild.
St. Louis has excited all season, going 77-55 and holding a commanding seven-and-a-half-game lead in the AL Central. St. Louis at home is almost unbeatable, with a 43-22 record in games played at Busch Stadium. This team has gone 7-3 in their last ten games, solidifying their division lead.
Here are the Cubs-Cardinals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Cardinals Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-128)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+106)
Over: 7.5 (-106)
Under: 7.5 (-114)
Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread
Chicago has not had much to write home about this season, save for playing in the beautiful Field of Dreams game. Tonight's starting pitcher is Drew Smyly, the veteran left-hander. Smyly has pitched to a 5-7 record with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts. In his last seven starts, Smyly's ERA is a sparkling 2.03. Smyly is basically a three-pitch pitcher, throwing over 40% curveballs to hitters. The curveball has held hitters to a .232 batting average, with 49 of Smyly's 73 strikeouts coming on that pitch. Smyly gets it done without elite velocity, averaging 92.6 mph on his fastball, but his average exit velocity of 86.3 mph is in the 90th percentile.
As is expected with a team 20 games under .500, Chicago's bullpen has not been good. But, even after trading away four capable relievers, there are solid individual pieces. Rookie lefty Brandon Hughes has been great since debuting in May, with a 2.96 ERA and 59 strikeouts in 45.2 innings. Hughes has struck out 31.4% of batters faced, and held them to an expected batting average at a measly .193. Mainly attacking with a fastball and slider, batters have hit below .200 against both of those offerings from Hughes.
Chicago's trade deadline was interesting, especially in their decision to keep both Willson Contreras and Ian Happ. The two have been stalwarts of this lineup recently and probably could have netted the team some significant prospects. Still, the lineup is strong with these two still suiting up. Happ has hit .276, leading the team with 35 doubles and belting 15 home runs. Contreras leads the team with a .351 on-base percentage, adding 21 home runs and 22 doubles. Patrick Wisdom leads the team with 22 home runs, adding 25 doubles. Then, there are the younger players. Seiya Suzuki, technically a rookie, has impressed in his first foray stateside. Suzuki is hitting .261 with 10 home runs, 21 doubles, and eight stolen bases. Christopher Morel has only played 88 games, but has hit 13 home runs, adding nine stolen bases. Nico Hoerner leads the team with a .285 batting average and 15 stolen bases, adding eight home runs.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover The Spread
St. Louis sends their resident ace Adam Wainwright to the mound in this one. Wainwright, enjoying another vintage season, has gone 9-9 with a 3.09 ERA in 163 innings across his 26 starts. At 41, Wainwright no longer throws as hard as he once did, but the curveball still has devastating drop. Wainwright has surrendered just a .228 average against his curveball. Despite the diminished velocity, Wainwright still lives in the zone, with a 6.5% walk rate.
St. Louis has a decent bullpen, ranking 11th in bullpen ERA. Ryan Helsley has shone through, with a 1.01 ERA in 53.1 innings pitched. Helsley averages just under 100 mph on his fastball and has struck out 40.7% of batters he has faced. Helsey's Baseball Savant is littered with red, putting him towards the top of most leaderboards across the league. Giovanny Gallegos has pitched to a 2.94 ERA with 13 saves, quietly continuing his run as a solid closer. Andre Pallante has pitched to a 1.47 ERA in his 43 innings out of the bullpen.
St. Louis' offense is led by first baseman Paul Goldschmidt, who is in the running for the NL Triple Crown. Goldschmidt is hitting .330 with 33 home runs and 105 RBI, adding 34 doubles. Nolan Arenado has teamed with Goldschmidt to form a dominant duo, as the third baseman has hit .305 with 28 home runs and a team-leading 36 doubles. Tommy Edman has hit 12 home runs while leading the team with 26 stolen bases. Lars Nootbaar has impressed in his rookie season, with 11 home runs and a .360 0n-base percentage in 79 games. Stop me if you have heard this before, but Albert Pujols is producing for the St. Louis Cardinals. Pujols got red-hot in August, raising his average to .268, and has now hit 15 home runs in his final MLB season. Pujols is a lefty-mashing threat and a great story for baseball.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
Hard to bet against Wainwright, no matter how old he is.
Final Cubs-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: St. Louis -1.5 (+106), over 7.5 (-106)
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