The Chicago Cubs take on the New York Mets. Check out our MLB odds series for our Cubs Mets prediction and pick.
Drew Smyly gets the call for the Cubs, while David Peterson takes the bump for the Mets.
Drew Smyly has been outstanding in the second half of the 2022 season, much as most of the Cubs' starters have noticeably improved. The Cubs' pitching has handcuffed the Mets in the first two games of this series, and now Smyly gets his chance to join in on the fun. Smyly dominated the Giants last Friday, outpitching Carlos Rodon and showing both the Cubs and the rest of baseball that he has lifted his game and is poised for a strong 2023 season. Maintaining his current form and setting the stage for a solid month of September will enable Smyly and the Cubs' starting rotation to go into 2023 thinking they can make a big leap and contend for a playoff spot.
David Peterson faces his most important moment in the 2022 season for the Mets. New York has lost to Chicago with Chris Bassitt and Jacob deGrom pitching on Monday and Tuesday, respectively. Those two pitchers have been great when asked to take the hill. Yet, the Mets went 0-2 in those games and are just half a game ahead of the Atlanta Braves. The Mets' hitters aren't doing very much, so Peterson not only faces the pressure of knowing he needs to help his team today; he also faces an extra layer of pressure: knowing his hitters are not in a good place, and that he has to pitch well to give his team a chance to win here. Peterson has to block out that distraction, but it's hard to avoid. He needs to make the percentage pitch instead of the perfect pitch. It's a big test for him on a night when the Mets badly need a win.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Cubs-Mets MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Cubs-Mets Odds
Chicago Cubs: +1.5 (-126)
New York Mets: -1.5 (+105)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
Why The Cubs Could Cover the Spread
They have thoroughly outplayed the Mets in the first two games of this series. They have gotten the home runs the Mets gained earlier in the season. They have been able to pitch out of jams. They have been able to get quality starts and strong late-inning relief. They might not have a great overall record, and their hitting might not be consistent, but they are a tough team and someone no contender should want to play right now. Drew Smyly was tremendous in his most recent start late last week against the Giants in Wrigley Field. He has seen his fellow pitchers shut down the Mets in the first two games of this series. He can certainly outpitch David Peterson. The Mets are stuck with a back-end rotation starter and do not have the advantage in this matchup.
Why The Mets Could Cover the Spread
The Mets losing three straight to the Cubs at home is a highly improbable occurrence. The Mets aren't playing well, and they definitely aren't hitting well. The Darin Ruf acquisition has been a disaster, and the Mets are looking for answers in the middle third of their order after Francisco Lindor and Pete Alonso. It is a very anxious time for the Mets right now, but after playing two terrible baseball games, this team — still with a chance to win 100 games this season — has achieved so much that it's hard to think it will lose three straight to the Cubs. Surely, the baseball odds are going to even out, and Peterson will do enough to help the Mets prevail.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick
You should stay away from this game, given how poorly the Mets are playing. If you have to bet, take the Mets, because they're bound to wake up at some point.
Final Cubs-Mets Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5
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