One of the best rivalries in baseball resumes on Friday night as the San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers meet in a key NL West battle for the top spot. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Dodgers-Giants prediction and pick.
San Francisco currently stands at 85-49 and is 43-22 at home. If you put $100 on every single Giants game so far this season, you’d be up $2,591 on the moneyline.
Los Angeles currently stands at 85-49 and is 39-26 on the road. If you put $100 on every single Dodgers game so far this season, you’d be down $350 on the moneyline.
Here’s how sportsbooks have set the Dodgers-Giants odds.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Giants Odds
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Los Angeles Dodgers ML (-120)
San Francisco Giants ML (+100)
Over 9 Runs (+100)
Under 9 Runs (-120)
Why The Dodgers Could Win This Game
The Dodgers come in to San Francisco riding the high of a sweep of the Atlanta Braves. L.A. sends David Price to the mound as they look to continue the streak.
Like most of the Dodgers starters, Price has given the team consistently solid outings. The former Cy Young winner has mostly been asked to provide spot starts and eat innings out of the bullpen lately, and he’s done so efficiently.
Price has pitched three or more innings nine times in the last two months, and he’s allowed two or less earned runs in seven of those outings. He hasn’t been ace quality, but he never pitches the Dodgers out of a game.
As long as Price can be moderately effective and hand the ball over to the bullpen with the game in reach, the Dodgers elite arms can take over.
Between Joe Kelly, Blake Treinen, and Kenley Jansen, the Dodgers are very difficult to beat if they have a lead going in to the seventh inning. The trio listed above have given up only one earned run in their last 16 innings combined, and the Dodgers bullpen as a whole has the fourth lowest ERA in the league.
At the plate, the Dodgers get a crack at getting some runs across against Anthony DeSclafani. Fortunately for L.A., they have great history against the righty.
DeSclafani has matched up with L.A. five times this season, and he’s pitched past the fifth inning only once. In 21 innings total against the Dodgers, he’s allowed 22 runs to cross the plate.
There are six Dodgers who have ten or more plate appearances against DeSclafani. Five of them are batting .300 or better. Max Muncy in particular has terrorized the Giants starter: In 21 plate appearances against DeSclafani, Muncy has five walks, two homers, and three singles for an OBP of .478.
Look for Muncy and the Dodgers to put up a few runs early against a familiar foe.
Why The Giants Could Win This Game
While DeSclafani might not have great numbers against the Dodgers, he’s been lights out against nearly everyone else. If the Dodgers starts were axed from this seasons record, the right-handers ERA drops all the way down to 2.29.
Of course, this doesn’t help much tonight because DeSclafani is facing….the Dodgers. but there’s reason to believe he can right the ship in his sixth try.
For one, DeSclafani has been much better at Oracle Park then he’s been on the road. In his last five home starts, DeSclafani has allowed six earned runs in 20 innings. In his last five road starts, he’s allowed 15 earned runs in 27 innings. His ERA has been close to halved in San Francisco over his last ten games.
Secondly, this Dodgers offense isn’t really knocking guys around at the moment. In the last ten games, the only starters to not complete at least five innings against L.A. are Kyle Freeland and Jon Gray. The other seven starters (L.A. played one game against a bullpen starter) all, at the very least, gave their teams length. DeSclafani could replicate that tonight.
The Giants have a solid matchup in the batters box tonight against David Price. The last time Price started against them, the Giants recorded three earned runs against him and Price failed to pitch in to the fifth inning.
At this point in his career, Price has lost some of his pinpoint control. He has walked 20 batters in 67.1 innings of work this year, something that could come back to bite him against the Giants.
San Francisco draws the sixth most walks in the league, and they have the second lowest chase rate in all of baseball. The Giants will execute the same strategy that they’ve used all year: wait for your pitch, and don’t miss it when you get it.
As long as the Giants show some plate discipline, they shouldn’t have a hard time getting some traffic tonight against a pitcher who’s not quite at the level he used to be at with his accuracy.
Final Dodgers-Giants Prediction & Pick
This game is setting up to be a low-scoring affair. There should be a playoff atmosphere from the first pitch, and runs will come at a premium. The numbers are also in the unders favor. In 13 of their last 15 games, the Dodgers pitching staff has allowed less than 5 earned runs. Seven of the last ten Giants home games have also cashed the under. Both starters should turn in serviceable jobs, even considering DeSclafani’s poor history against the Dodgers. Both teams have elite bullpens (both top five in lowest ERA) that should close the deal. Take the under.
FINAL DODGERS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: UNDER 9 RUNS (-120)