The Los Angeles Dodgers (107-48) conclude a three-game series with the San Diego Padres (86-69) Thursday night. Both teams will be starting relief pitchers. Brusdar Graterol (2-3) is projected to start for the Dodgers, while Steven Wilson (4-2) will take the bump for the Padres. The first pitch is slated for 9:40 ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Dodgers-Padres prediction and pick.
Brusdar Graterol will make his first start of the season for Los Angeles. Primarily a reliever, Graterol has picked up 2 wins in his 46 2/3s innings of work. During that time he has held down a 2.89 ERA and struck out 41 batters. This is Graterol's second week back from an IL stint thanks to elbow inflammation. Injuries have limited the 24-year-old's use this season but he has proven to be an effective arm when healthy. He's thrown just over an inning against the Padres this season and did not give up a run.
San Diego will match their division rivals in starting normal reliever Steven Wilson. Wilson has managed to pick up 4 wins this season in 50 innings pitched. During his time on the mound, the righty struck out 50 batters while maintaining a 2.88 ERA. Wilson has thrown 7 innings against Los Angeles this season. He allowed no runs and struck out 8 Dodgers in that action.
Here are the Dodgers-Padres MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Dodgers-Padres Odds
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+125)
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-150)
Over: 8 (-114)
Under: 8 (-105)
Why The Dodgers Could Cover The Spread
The Dodgers are the best team in baseball. Their 107 wins lead all of Major League Baseball and they do so on the back of an excellent pitching staff and star-studded positional lineup. Coming into the series finale, the Dodgers lead the season series by a 13-5 margin. They'll be looking for their ninth consecutive series win against their National League West rivals dating back to June 2021. LA is coming off a 1-0 extra-inning victory in game two of the series. Both games in the series have gone to extras.
LA's lineup is loaded with talent and it starts with outfielder Mookie Betts. For the season Betts is batting a respectable .269. That's a far cry from some of his previous seasons but he's managed to contribute in others ways to make up for that. Betts has hit 35 home runs, driven in 81 runs, and stolen 12 bags. His 35 homers are a career-high. Betts has had his way with the Padres this season. Against San Diego Betts has hit .375 and knocked out 3 homers in just 56 at-bats.
Although Betts and his other star teammates steal most of the spotlight, it has been catcher Will Smith who's had the hot bat as of late. In his last 6 games, Smith leads the team with 8 hits to the tune of a .308 batting average. He's put up solid numbers against the Padres this season. In 61 plate appearances, Smith hit .262 and blasted 4 home runs. Smith's hot streak could go a long way in making a Dodgers-Padres prediction.
Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread
San Diego has been one of the more up-and-down teams in baseball this season. Oozing with talent and potential, they've struggled to score runs consistently. When San Diego scores at least five runs they are 49-11. The pitching staff is excellent and they certainly have the name value to compete with the Dodgers but they've struggled with inconsistency.
That is, of course, until the last few weeks. The Padres are 8-2 in their last 10 games – outscoring their opponents by 34 runs in those matchups. San Diego has picked the right time to start to heat up and that directly correlates with the play of outfielder Juan Soto. Soto struggled to find his footing in San Diego after being acquired from Washington. He's really picked it up as of late though, showing the Padres why they gave up the farm to acquire him. In his last 10 games, Soto has gone 14-37, hitting 2 homers and driving in 8 runs over that stretch. He's the ultimate X-factor and has the potential to carry the Padres in any game he plays.
Speaking of hot bats, keep an eye on star third baseman Manny Machado. The superstar third baseman has put together yet another stellar season as he's just a hair shy of the .300 mark. He's been picking things up as of late, too. Machado holds a .464 on-base percentage in the last week to go along with 2 home runs. Machado's big numbers have come at the perfect time as San Diego attempts to make a late-season push for the postseason.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick
Without normal starting pitchers, it's hard to feel good about either side of the line in tonight's game. That being said, the Padres haven't won a series against the Dodgers since June of last year but that ends tonight… and even if it doesn't I don't see them losing by more than a run. Every game in this series has been close and tonight should be no different.
Final Dodgers-Padres Prediction & Pick: San Diego Padres +1.5 (-150)
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