The San Francisco Giants take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Giants Padres prediction and pick.
Alex Wood gets the start for the Giants, while MacKenzie Gore takes the bump for the Padres.
Alex Wood has a 4.83 ERA, and unlike some pitchers who have high ERAs because one or two horrendous starts blew up their numbers in spite of otherwise-solid results over a two- or three-month stretch, Wood is an example of a pitcher who has been consistently mediocre. His ERA in April was 4.19. His ERA in May was 5.32. His ERA in June was 5.34. That's consistency, just not the kind San Francisco was counting on. Wood's one start in July, his most recent outing, was a solid performance on July 5 against the Diamondbacks. He allowed just one run on four hits in five innings. Does that mean he has solved his problems? We need to see him shut down the Padres to prove that he has real momentum and can string together good performances.
MacKenzie Gore has a 3.18 ERA, and if he could figure out the Colorado Rockies, he would be squarely in the National League Cy Young Award conversation. You might be shocked by that point, but it's real. Gore would have an ERA well under 1.50 if he had not faced the Rockies this season. Gore has made 13 starts and given up 23 runs in those starts. In two starts against the Rockies, he has allowed 14 runs, a majority of his 23-run count for the year. That means that in his other 11 starts, Gore has given up a total of just nine runs.
Gore had a 1.50 ERA heading into the first of his two starts against the Rockies on June 11. Then he got shelled twice. In his two starts since his Colorado nightmare, he has allowed one run in 10 2/3 innings, so it's clear that his ERA in non-Rockies games is under 1.50.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Giants-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Giants-Padres Odds
San Francisco Giants: +1.5 (-200)
San Diego Padres: -1.5 (+164)
Over: 8 (-110)
Under: 8 (-110)
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Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
The Giants won on Saturday, giving them a chance to split this four-game series and change the tenor of their season. Carlos Rodon came up huge for San Francisco on Saturday, going the distance and giving an overworked Giant bullpen a chance to rest. If this game is tied after six innings, the fresh San Francisco pen gives the Giants a slight but meaningful advantage. The Giants were able to win Saturday's game despite another low-output game from their offense. This team has too many proven players to keep performing at a subpar level. Just one breakout game is all this team needs to reset the dial on its season and hit the baseball hard in the second half, which will allow San Francisco to get back into the National League wild card race.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
MacKenzie Gore has pitched well against every team but one this year. We noted that point above. When he is not facing the Rockies, he rocks. Against non-Colorado teams, he has an ERA below 1.50. That's a hard fact to ignore, and given how poor the Giants' offense has been this season — especially in recent weeks — it's natural to think Gore will have the answers on the mound. Moreover, San Diego hasn't exactly lit it up this series on offense, with meager performances in Game 1 on Thursday and Game 3 on Saturday. Scoring merely four or five runs will probably be enough to cover the spread, certainly if Gore is on his game. Alex Wood has not been good for the Giants. San Diego has to like how this game lines up.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick
If MacKenzie Gore does what he normally does, and Alex Wood does what he normally does, this game won't be particularly close. The Padres are the obvious choice, given the pitching matchup.
Final Giants-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres -1.5
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