The Seattle Mariners take on the Texas Rangers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Mariners Rangers prediction and pick.
Marco Gonzales goes to the mound for the Mariners, while Dane Dunning takes the bump for the Rangers.
Marco Gonzales has a 3.98 ERA. He has not joined the parade for Seattle. In other words, he hasn't been at the forefront of the improvements in the Mariners' pitching which have propelled this team to the first position among American League wild card teams.
Gonzales won only one start during the Mariners' 14-game winning streak in the first half of July. He has allowed five or more runs in three of his last five starts. Gonzales has veered from solid to mediocre but has not dominated any opposing lineup in recent weeks. The last time he gave up fewer than two earned runs in a start was on June 15. Gonzales hasn't been bad in most of his starts. Six innings pitched and three runs allowed is a pitching line he has posted — or come very close to — in multiple starts over the past six weeks. Yet, his July ERA was 4.60. Other members of the Mariner staff are providing the high-end pitching which has catapulted this team to the next level. Seattle can really use a more efficient version of Gonzales, such as the one who contained the Rangers in a July 27 start. Gonzales went seven innings and allowed two runs. That's the guy the Mariners need.
Dane Dunning has a 4.04 ERA. In his first two starts of the month of July, Dunning pitched 7 2/3 innings and allowed seven earned runs. You can do the quick math and put that ERA close to the nine-run mark. In his last three starts, however, Dunning has pitched 18 innings and allowed only four runs. You can do the quick math there and see that Dunning's ERA in those three starts is an even two runs. Which version of Dunning will appear in this game? Keep in mind that Dunning went five innings and allowed two runs to the Mariners on July 26. These teams have seen each other a lot since the beginning of July, so Dunning and Gonzales are both very familiar with the batting orders they will face.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Mariners-Rangers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Mariners-Rangers Odds
Seattle Mariners: -1.5 (+164)
Texas Rangers: +1.5 (-200)
Over: 8.5 (-106)
Under: 8.5 (-114)
Why The Mariners Could Cover the Spread
The Mariners have won nine straight and 17 of 19 against the Rangers. They swept Texas just before the All-Star break in Arlington as part of their 14-game winning streak. They swept Texas shortly after the All-Star break in Seattle to bounce back after they got swept by the Houston Astros. The Mariners simply own Texas. Beyond that, the Rangers simply haven't played well this year. They acquired both Marcus Semien and Corey Seager. Semien had an atrocious first three months to the season. He has been moderately better in recent months, but the Rangers still have a lot of holes in the lower half of their batting order, and their pitching is not strong enough to compensate for that deficiency. The Mariners, on the other hand, are getting elite pitching, especially from their bullpen, which struggled in the first two months of the season but has come alive in the summer months. Julio Rodriguez and Mitch Haniger are back. Eugenio Suarez has noticeably improved over the past month. The pieces of the puzzle are fitting together for a team which looks primed to end its 21-year playoff drought.
Why The Rangers Could Cover the Spread
After losing nine straight to the Mariners, the Rangers are due to play a good game against Seattle. Moreover, Marco Gonzales has not been an especially strong member of the Seattle rotation. Dane Dunning pitched really well in his most recent start. If he carries that level of form into this game, the Rangers are likely to win.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick
The Rangers are going to win a game against the Mariners at some point. However, Seattle is undeniably the better team and is riding the wave right now. This is a good stay-away game, but if you absolutely insist on a pick, lean to the Mariners until Texas proves it can beat them.
Final Mariners-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Mariners -1.5
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