The Miami Marlins take on the San Diego Padres. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins-Padres prediction and pick.
The pitching matchup in this game is Jesus Luzardo of the Marlins versus Nick Martinez for the Padres.
Luzardo outpitched Robbie Ray of the Mariners last Saturday in a victory over Seattle. Luzardo went six innings and gave up only one run on just two hits plus two walks. He displayed great command and was able to keep the Mariners off balance. He struck out five hitters, showing an ability to thrive when ahead in the count. It's worth noting, if you pay attention to the MLB odds, that the Marlins were a moneyline favorite last Saturday when Luzardo went up against Ray, the 2021 Cy Young Award winner … and Luzardo did prevail in that battle. He has a 3.10 ERA and has been great for the Marlins through one month of play.
Nick Martinez takes the bump for the Padres with a 4.12 ERA. He is a serviceable back-end rotation man who has not been particularly impressive or especially bad. That's an entirely respectable existence for someone who has succeeded in keeping San Diego competitive. He hasn't allowed more than four runs in any start. He has allowed no more than two runs in three separate starts. He does give up a lot of hits — 21 in 19 2/3 innings so far this season — but he stays out of the big inning and gives manager Bob Melvin five innings per start. It's not flashy, but getting 15 outs without giving up big numbers helps San Diego figure out how to get 27 outs and a victory when Martinez gets the ball.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Padres MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Padres Odds
Marlins: -1.5 (+155)
Padres: +1.5 (-188)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
The pitching matchup is great for Miami. This is a cornerstone component of a Marlins Padres prediction. Luzardo has beaten Robbie Ray in 2022. He can certainly beat Nick Martinez. The Marlins might not blow out the Padres, but they can certainly get three or four runs in the first five innings, bank a two-run lead heading into the sixth, and let Luzardo pitch into the seventh with a working margin.
It also has to be said that the Padres just played a doubleheader in Cleveland against the Guardians on Wednesday. They had to fly cross country to San Diego for this game. That's a situation in which the Padres might feel the effects of travel and a crammed game schedule. If teams are likely to be sharper after a day of rest, the Padres are in the exact opposite position, playing a third game in two days across two cities three time zones apart.
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres are a better team than the Marlins, part of a stacked National League West in which four teams entered Thursday's play at four games over .500 or better. Only the Arizona Diamondbacks had a record worse than 14-10. The Padres, at 16-9, are one of only five MLB teams with single-digit losses on the morning of May 5 (Yankees, Mets, Brewers, Dodgers). That doesn't happen if a team isn't able to beat mediocre teams on the schedule. The Marlins are a .500 ballclub, which isn't too bad, but they just got swept at home by the Diamondbacks, a clear indicator of a team with limited upside.
Even though the travel setup is brutal for San Diego in this game, the Padres are getting a run and a half against the spread. That should inform your Marlins Padres pick. Luzardo is worth respect, and it's reasonable to think the Padres might stumble, but a good team is still getting a run and a half at home against an inferior team. That matters.
Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick
One good reminder about betting on sports: You don't have to make the most aggressive bet for every game. Some days, the conservative bet is fine. Pick your spots for the more adventurous bets. Here, just take the Padres plus the run and a half at home. You don't need to go for the moneyline. There's nothing wrong with playing a -188 bet with far better percentages than the moneyline, which is near -110.
Final Marlins-Padres Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5
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