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The Miami Marlins will attempt to avoid the sweep as they take on the Atlanta Braves in the finale at Truist Park. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Braves prediction and pick.
The Braves defeated the Marlins 2-1 on a walk-off walk with the bases loaded on Saturday. It was a game that featured little scoring but plenty of chances. First, the Braves struck in the fourth when Austin Riley hammered a shot to left field for a home run. The long ball was his 35th of the season. Additionally, it was the fourth game in a row Riley had hit a home run. The home run made it 1-0 Braves. Soon, the Marlins tied the game to set up a 1-1 duel heading into the ninth. Atlanta loaded the bases and scored the winning run when Robbie Grossman’s patience paid off.
The Marlins fall to 55-77 while the Braves improve to 83-51. Moreover, Atlanta has cut its deficit in the NL East to two games as they try and chase the New York Mets for the top spot.
Pablo Lopez will take the mound for the Marlins today. Lopez is 8-8 with a 3.64 ERA. In his last start, he went six innings while allowing two earned runs on five hits, including a home run. Lopez has given up four home runs over his last five starts. In one of those starts, he lasted 5 2/3 innings while allowing two earned runs on four hits in his only start against the Braves this season. Lopez went 1-2 with a 4.61 ERA over five starts in August.
Max Fried takes the hill for the Braves. Fried is 12-5 with a 2.56 ERA. In a recent outing, the Cy-Young candidate went five innings while allowing three runs (three earned). Fried went 2-2 with a 2.42 ERA over four starts in August. Fried faced the Marlins earlier this year, going six innings while allowing one earned run on six hits with five strikeouts.
Here are the Marlins-Braves MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Braves Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-118)
Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-102)
Over: 7 (-115)
Under: 7 (-105)
Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
The Marlins have been a hot mess and have continued the downturn in this series. Amazingly, Miami has scored two or fewer runs in seven straight games. Their offense is offensive to anyone who watches baseball and matches their franchise record in 2019. It drops their marks lower than before. The offense now ranks 27th in baseball in batting average and 27th in on-base percentage. They are also 27th in runs, 25th in home runs, and 27th in slugging percentage. Miami left six runners on the basepaths and is averaging three runs per game against Atlanta (3.38 on the road this season).
Joey Wendle is one of their better players in the lineup. However, he is batting .254 with two home runs, 27 RBIs, and 21 runs through 82 games. Wendle is batting .278 with three RBIs and two runs over 11 games against Atlanta.
Miami’s bullpen gave the game away to Atlanta last night. Significantly, they held the score for a few innings but ultimately could only do so much. They finished the night with one earned run on three hits with four strikeouts and two walks *including the game-winner).
The Marlins will cover the spread if they can finally get the bats going. However, it will be a tall task against one of the best starters in the game today. Miami’s relievers must once more play their best if the offense sputters.
Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread
The Braves are getting hot at the right time again. They hope to continue their streaky ways and finish off the Marlins. The Braves are averaging 4.47 runs per game against Miami and 4.63 runs at home. Atlanta ranks ninth in batting average, 10th in on-base percentage, and third in runs. Additionally, they are also second in home runs and second in slugging percentage. The Braves are at the top of the ladder in all hitting categories. Despite that, they left eight runners stranded.
Atlanta has some weapons in their arsenal, and they must sync up. Their offense did not drive in the game-winning run. Instead, they received a gift of victory from the Marlins. Riley is batting .211 (12 for 57) with six home runs, eight RBIs, and seven runs over 15 games against the Marlins. Now, he must continue his attack from last night’s game.
The Braves will cover the spread if Fried pitches like a Cy-Young candidate and the offense tally more than two runs.
Final Marlins-Braves Prediction & Pick
The Marlins are awful, and the Braves are defending World Series champs that appear to be on fire again. Expect Atlanta to stay hot and complete the sweep.
Final Marlins-Braves Prediction & Pick: Atlanta Braves: -1.5 (-102)