The Miami Marlins take on the St. Louis Cardinals. Check out our MLB odds series for our Marlins Cardinals prediction and pick.
Pablo Lopez takes the bump for the Marlins, while Adam Wainwright gets the start for the Cardinals.
Pablo Lopez has a 2.61 ERA, which is better than most starting pitchers in baseball, but that number doesn't tell the full story of his season. Lopez was nearly untouchable in the first seven starts of 2022, notching a 1.05 ERA. In those seven starts, Lopez pitched 43 innings and gave up five earned runs. He was as good as his Miami teammate, National League Cy Young frontrunner Sandy Alcantara.
In his last seven starts, Lopez has pitched 39 2/3 innings and allowed 19 earned runs, an ERA of well over four runs. The league has made adjustments. Hitters have been able to study Lopez and execute a much better plan against him. Lopez has allowed roughly twice as many walks in his last seven starts (15) as he allowed in his first seven starts (8). He has allowed three times as many homers, six in his last seven starts compared to two in his first seven starts. Lopez is still a solid pitcher. In his most recent outing on June 22 against the Rockies, he did not allow an earned run in seven strong innings. Yet, he is not nearly as consistent, and he needs to show that he can still bring it on a regular basis if the Marlins are going to improve.
Adam Wainwright has a 3.32 ERA. In April, he posted an ERA of exactly four runs. In May he was really sharp, registering an ERA of 1.69. June has been very bumpy. Wainwright has regressed and allowed and ERA of 4.68 this month. Wainwright has allowed at least seven hits in each of his four June starts. In May, he allowed four hits or fewer in four of his five starts. Hitters are making solid, direct contact against him right now, squaring up the bat and adjusting to Waino's mixture of speeds and spins. Wainwright has to find a way to get hitters off balance again.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Marlins-Cardinals MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Cardinals Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-192)
St. Louis Cardinals: -1.5 (+158)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
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Why The Marlins Could Cover the Spread
The Marlins are coming off a thrilling 3-2 win over the Mets in which they walked it off in the bottom of the ninth on a solo home run. That's a great way to come into St. Louis, where the Cardinals are struggling after losing a weekend series to the Cubs. The Cardinals had a good few weeks, but their stumble against the Cubs is a major red flag in terms of indicating how ready they truly are to take hold of the National League Central Division.
Also, Adam Wainwright is not pitching well right now. He could bounce back in this game, but it's not easy to trust an aging pitcher who might simply be losing his edge.
One more detail: Miami played the very early brunch Peacock game on Sunday, giving the Marlins added time to travel to Missouri and rest up for this game. The Cardinals' game concluded a few hours after the Marlins' game ended on Sunday.
Why The Cardinals Could Cover the Spread
After losing two of three to the Cubs and blowing a 5-0 lead to Chicago on Sunday, the Cardinals are going to be angry and motivated for this game. They know they need to respond well to a difficult weekend. They also know that Adam Wainwright hasn't pitched for nearly two decades in the big leagues without learning how to adjust and correct his problems when they arise. They trust Waino, as they should. They know that Pablo Lopez is not pitching at an especially high level, either.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick
Lopez could easily outduel Wainwright, but he hasn't been consistent enough, and this is a great bounce-back spot for St. Louis after the ugly and frustrating Cubs series.
Final Marlins-Cardinals Prediction & Pick: Cardinals -1.5
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