The Miami Marlins (10-9) visit the Cleveland Guardians (10-9) on Friday night! First pitch commences at 7:10 p.m. ET. Below we continue our MLB odds series with a Marlins-Guardians prediction, pick, and how to watch.
Here are the Marlins-Guardians MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Marlins-Guardians Odds
Miami Marlins: +1.5 (-188)
Cleveland Guardians: -1.5 (+155)
Over: 7.5 (-122)
Under: 7.5 (+100)
How To Watch Marlins vs. Guardians
TV: Bally Sports
Stream: MLB.tv
Time: 7:10 p.m. ET/ 4:10 p.m. PT
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Why The Marlins Could Cover The Spread
Last 10 & Standing: 7-3 (Third in the NL East)
Run Line Record: 7-12 (37%)
Over Record: 6-12-1 (33%)
Miami rides a three-series win streak into Cleveland for a three-game set with the Guardians! The Marlins played good ball thus far this season with series wins over the Twins, Phillies, Diamondbacks, and Giants. While they did drop two early series with their division rivals, the Mets, the Marlins otherwise look like a much-improved team compared to last year. In fact, five of their nine losses have come against the Mets. That being said, the Marlins still play some of the most inconsistent baseball in the league. Despite a winning record, they rank 29th in the MLB in runs and 25th with a -26 run differential. Of their 10 wins, six came by a single run. On the flip side, four of their nine losses came by 5+ runs. Consequently, the Marlins need to keep things close if they want to try and squeak out a cover tonight.
Southpaw Braxton Garrett (0-0) makes his fourth start of the season tonight. Despite this being his third start Garrett still searches for his first decision of the year. Garrett looked shaky in his first start against the Mets when he allowed six hits and two runs in just three innings of work. He lasted a bit longer in his second start but still gave up nine hits in 4.2 innings. That being said, Garrett finally looked sharp in his most recent outing when he allowed just one run and struck out five in 5.2 innings against the Diamondbacks. After recording a 3.58 ERA and 9.2 K/9 in 88 innings last season, the 25-year-old may be putting it all together. That being said, throughout his career, he struggled outside of Miami and will need to get some run support on a cold weather day.
Why The Guardians Could Cover The Spread
Last 10 & Standing: 5-5 (Second in the AL Central)
Run Line Record: 7-12 (37%)
Over Record: 9-9-1 (50%)
Cleveland hasn't struggled, per se, but their underlying metrics leave a lot to be desired after their successful 2022 campaign. The Guardians were the youngest team not just in the MLB, but their average age was younger than every single Triple-A team. Considering they ran back essentially the same team that narrowly lost in the ALDS last season, many expected Cleveland to ascend to the top of the American League this season. So far, that hasn't been the case. After two series wins to kick off the season, the Guardians lost three of their last four. That includes their most recent series during which they dropped the first two games with the Tigers before salvaging game three. That being said, the Guardians still play excellent small ball and with home-field advantage should be in a strong position to cover as home favorites.
Righty Zach Plesac (1-0) makes his third start of the season for Cleveland. Despite a 1-0 record, the 28-year-old has not pitched well thus far. He completed just a single inning in his season debut thanks to allowing six runs to the Athletics. Plesac followed that up with a strong outing against the Mariners but he was still pegged for two runs and a homer. He got a bit unlucky in his most recent start against the Nationals when he allowed four runs (two earned) in 5.0 innings against Washington. After a disappointing 2022, Plesac hasn't gotten off to a good start this season. He recorded a 3-12 record thanks to a 4.31 ERA and 1.32 WHIP last season and looks to be going down a similar road this year. That being said he was much better at home last season – perhaps giving hope for a strong outing tonight.
Final Marlins-Guardians Prediction & Pick
Both teams look infatuated with close games this season. 12 of Cleveland's 19 games and six of Miami's 19 were decided by a single run one way or the other. The Guardians should win tonight based on talent alone but the pitching matchup really tilts the advantage toward the Marlins. That being said, there isn't any value in taking them at -188 and thus we'll turn toward the under in what should be a low-scoring affair between two of the league's worst offenses.
Final Marlins-Guardians Prediction & Pick: Under 7.5 (+100)
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