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MLB Odds: Mets vs. Brewers prediction, odds and pick – 9/21/2022

Mets Brewers prediction

The New York Mets and Milwaukee Brewers will wrap up their three-game series with a Wednesday afternoon tilt in Milwaukee. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Mets-Brewers prediction and pick, laid out below.

The New York Mets have won six games in a row, clinching a playoff berth while dueling with Atlanta for the top spot in the NL East. New York has improved their record to 95-55, one full game ahead of Atlanta in the division. It certainly seems like the division will come down to the final weekend matchup between the two teams.

Milwaukee will be happy to have both New York teams out of their stadium, as they have now lost three straight to both the Yankees and Mets. Milwaukee now sits at a 78-70 record, second place in the NL Central, and two and a half games behind the final NL Wild Card spot.

Here are the Mets-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel. 

MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds

New York Mets: -1.5 (+126)

Milwaukee Brewers: +1.5 (-152)

Over: 8.5 (-120)

Under: 8.5 (-102)

Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread

Taijuan Walker will take the mound looking to complete the sweep in this one for the Mets. Walker has gone 12-4 with a 3.42 ERA, striking out 111 batters in 142 innings across his 26 starts. Walker’s split finger has devastated opponents, with a .206 batting average against the pitch and 44 strikeouts in 189 at-bats. Batters are hitting just .237 against Walker this season. Walker’s 6.9 percent walk rate is his lowest since 2016.

New York’s bullpen ranks tenth in the league with a 3.57 ERA, striking out 589 batters in 512.1 innings. Adam Ottavino has been great in his first season with the club, with a 2.10 ERA and 71 strikeouts in 60 innings. Ottavino is known for his whirly slider, and batters have hit just .171 against the pitch. Opponents have whiffed on 37.5 percent of the sliders they have swung at. Closer Edwin Diaz has been an absolute revelation this season. Acquired before the 2019 season along with Robinson Cano, Diaz has pitched better than ever this season. In 58 innings, Diaz has 31 saves and 110 strikeouts, pitching to a 1.40 ERA. Diaz has struck out an astonishing 49.5 percent of the batters he has faced this season, with opponents hitting just .165 against the flamethrowing righty.

Pete Alonso has carried this offense this season, leading with 37 home runs and 121 RBI. For the third straight season, Alonso has cut his strikeout rate from his rookie season and would be firmly entrenched in the NL MVP discussion if not for Paul Goldschmidt or Freddie Freeman. Francisco Lindor, last night’s hero with a go-ahead grand slam, is second on the team with 25 home runs, 99 RBI, and 16 stolen bases. Lindor battled some health issues and inconsistency last season but has lived up to the huge contract he was rewarded. Brandon Nimmo and Jeff McNeil have been the unsung heroes of this lineup. Nimmo leads the team with 67 walks, adding 14 home runs and 28 doubles. McNeil leads the team with a .317 batting average and 37 doubles, adding seven home runs. The Mets rank fifth in the league with a .257 team batting average.

Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread

Milwaukee is skidding of late, but will send Adrian Houser to the mound in this one. Houser has made 20 appearances this season, 19 of them being starts. In his last outing, Houser struggled to contain a potent Yankees’ offense, surrendering four earned runs in three innings, walking four while striking out one. Houser’s slider is his best pitch, holding batters to a .137 batting average.

Milwaukee’s bullpen imploded last night, with a four-run seventh inning being the deciding factor in the game. After a scoreless two-inning open from Aaron Ashby, the bullpen proceeded to give up seven runs across seven innings. All seven of those runs came in the sixth and seventh innings of the game. Still, the potential for this group is limitless. Taylor Rogers has yet to reach his peak this season but is a capable lefty and a former closer. Jake Cousins, who was a key part of the 2021 bullpen, has made only nine appearances due to an elbow injury. In those nine appearances, Cousins has a 3.86 ERA and 15 strikeouts in 9.1 innings. Devin Williams has taken over the closer duties, pitching to a 1.76 ERA with 13 saves and 86 strikeouts in 56.1 innings.

Milwaukee has some of the best power in the league, with nine hitters reaching double-digit home runs. Rowdy Tellez leads the club with 32 home runs, while Willy Adames ranks second with 32. Hunter Renfroe is the third Brewer with at least 25 home runs. Adames leads the team with 94 RBI and 30 doubles, slugging .480. Tellez ranks second with 85 RBI. Christian Yelich leads the team with 78 walks and 16 stolen bases, adding 25 doubles and 12 home runs. Andrew McCutchen has battled Father Time, hitting 17 home runs and 23 doubles on the season. As a team, Milwaukee has hit 203 home runs, which ranks third in the league.

Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick

New York simply has the advantage of the starting pitchers.

Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (+126), over 8.5 (-120)