The New York Mets are just looking to score a run this afternoon as they face the Milwaukee Brewers. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Mets-Brewers prediction, pick, and how to watch.
The Mets are not only looking to avoid the sweep at the hands of the Brewers but maybe just get a run across. In the first two games of this series, the Mets have scored zero runs, while allowing 19. After starting the season strong with four good pitching performances, and three games with good offense, it has fallen apart for them. The Brewers have now won four straight games after losing on opening day. Since then, they have scored 31 runs in those four games, while allowing just six to be scored on them.
Here are the Mets-Brewers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Brewers Odds
New York Mets: +1.5 (-184)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+152)
Over: 7.5 (-105)
Under: 7.5 (-115)
How To Watch Mets vs. Brewers
Time: 1:40 PM ET/ 10:40 AM PT
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Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
There are two ways to score in baseball, either get on base and work the man around, or slam a home run. The Mets have done neither of those in the last two games. In the first game of the series, the Mets struggled to get on base, getting on three hits on the day. With six walks, they did have base runners though and had chances to get guys in, but went 0-5 with runners in scoring position. In game two, they hit better. New York has eight hits in the game, including three from both Jeff McNeil and Brandon Nimmo, but once again, they went 0-5 with runners in scoring position. The middle of the lineup is struggling so far this year. Lindor, Alonso, and Canha are all hitting below .200, but if that improves a few more runs should come.
The second option for scoring is hitting the long ball. Milwaukee is a good park for home runs, being 12th in Park Factor according to Baseball Savant. This does drop slightly if the roof is closed, as it was on the opening day of the series, but it is not a massive drop-off. The Mets also have the guys to hit said home runs. Tommy Pham, Mark Canha, and Pete Alonso all have solid power. Alonso has been picked by some to lead all of baseball in home runs this year, but those three guys only have three home runs combined this year. Those three are also the only home runs by the team this year. The Mets are not making good contact, and the ball is not carrying for them.
David Peterson will be the pitcher for the Mets this afternoon, and a lack of run support was an issue for him in his last start. He pitched five innings and only gave up one run, but he took the loss in that effort. If Peterson can have the same type of performance, the Mets will be in a position to win, and it will just be down to if they can get a run across the plate.
Why The Brewers Could Cover The Spread
The Brewers have been dominant in the first two games of the series, putting up 19 runs. That brings their total to 31 RBIs on the season, which is tied for 4th in MLB. The offense is not doing anything crazy though, but they have been efficient. They are eighth in batting average, fifth in on-base percentage, 11th in home runs, and 14th in total bases. None of their numbers blow you away, but they are scoring. Last game it was home runs that carried the day. Rowdy Tellez, Brian Anderson, and Garrett Mitchell hit three consecutive home runs off of Max Scherzer in the sixth inning on their way to a victory.
Wade Miley also pitched wonderfully on his way to his 100th career win. He pitched six innings, walking none and giving up five hits while shutting out the Mets. Today, Corbin Burnes gets the start on the mound. He has the worst pitching performance by a Brewers starter so far this year. His opening-day start saw him give up four runs in five innings as he took the loss. He should have a good chance to bounce back today, and give the Brewers six good innings.
If the Brewers can get that start from Burnes, the bullpen has been solid. In 15 2/3 innings so far this year the pen has only given up three runs. That is a bullpen ERA of 1.72, which will win a lot of games for the Brewers. Today will be simple for the Brewers. Just keep doing what they have been. If they do that, they will win with ease again.
Final Mets-BrewersPrediction & Pick
Amazingly, an offense with the level of bats that are on the Mets has managed to not score a single run in two games. Shutouts happen, but back-to-back this early in the season should be concerning for New York. The task will not get any easier tonight. Burnes was a pre-season Cy Young candidate and will bounce back from his rough first start. If he pitches well, the Mets will not find success against this bullpen. The Brewers pounce early, getting a few runs, and the bullpen shuts down the Mets again.
Final Mets-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5 (+152)