The New York Mets will conclude their three-game series with division-rival Washington Nationals on Wednesday afternoon. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Mets-Nationals prediction and pick we have laid out below.
The Mets, in true Mets fashion, welcomed Jacob deGrom back with just one run of support, wasting five innings of one-run ball from their ace. Still, the Mets are 65-38, holding a two-and-a-half-game lead over the Atlanta Braves.
Washington, on the day they traded generational star Juan Soto, shockingly defeated the Mets 5-1. This will go down as a forgettable campaign in our nation's capital, as a 36-69 record is the worst mark in baseball.
Here are the Mets-Nationals MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Mets-Nationals Odds
New York Mets: -1.5 (-166)
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+138)
Over: 9 (-118)
Under: 9 (-104)
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
New York is sending the third of their three-headed monster in the rotation to the mound, as Chris Bassitt will look to follow deGrom's performance. Bassitt has enjoyed a decent season, his first in Queens, with an even 7-7 record and a 3.83 ERA. Bassitt has been great in his last seven starts, with a 2.89 ERA and a 0.94 WHIP across that stretch. Bassitt is in the 94th percentile for lowest exit velocity, while striking out just under a quarter of batters faced. Backing up Bassitt is an elite bullpen, with their 3.50 ERA ranking seventh in baseball. The group performance is overshadowed by the dominance of closer Edwin Diaz, with a 1.51 ERA, 23 saves, and a shocking 83 strikeouts in 41.2 innings. Adam Ottavino has been great, with a 2.21 ERA in 41 appearances.
At the plate, New York has two of the best hitters in the National League in Pete Alonso and Francisco Lindor. Alonso has been his usual self, launching 27 home runs to go along with his .276 average. Lindor has overcome his sluggish 2021 to mash 19 home runs and steal 10 bases with a .261 batting average. Starling Marte and Jeff McNeil have been raking, with batting averages at .300 and .297 respectively. New York ranks fifth in baseball with a .256 batting average as a team. This lineup should give opposing pitcher's nightmares.
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
There is not much to play for in Washington these days, as the best player in baseball, formerly a National, now resides in beautiful San Diego. Outside of the aforementioned Juan Soto and fellow new San Diego resident Josh Bell, there are not many fearsome hitters on this club. Nelson Cruz may have finally lost his battles with Father Time, as he has managed just 8 home runs and a .231 batting average. Absent Soto and Bell, no Nationals player has reached double-digit home runs. Victor Robles paces the team with 13 stolen bases, a legitimate speed threat should be reach base. Washington's 83 home runs are third-worst in baseball.
Veteran Anibal Sanchez, who won the 2019 World Series with this club, is this afternoon's starter. Sanchez has not been putrid thus far, with a 7.47 ERA across his three starts. While there is still time to turn those numbers, Wednesday afternoon is not the ideal spot to do so. It is not hard to understand why Washington has struggled, as their 5.12 ERA is the highest mark in the league. The lone bright spot, sort of, would be Washington's bullpen, which ranks 24th with a 4.19 ERA. Closer Tanner Rainey has shined with a 3.30 ERA and 12 saves.
Final Mets-Nationals Prediction & Pick
Last night was probably a fluke, no need to overthink this one.
Final Mets-Nationals Prediction & Pick: Mets -1.5 (-176), over 9 (-114)
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