The Washington Nationals and New York Mets will begin the final regular-season series with a Monday night matchup at Citi Field in Queens. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes a Nationals-Mets prediction and pick, laid out below.
Washington is eyeing the end of the season, with a 55-104 record that currently is the worst in all of baseball. The horrible record justified a trade deadline selloff and is a far cry from their 2019 championship run. Baseball in our nation’s capital will take a few steps backwards before moving forward.
New York is coming off a sweep at the hands of the Atlanta Braves, putting them in second place in the NL East despite a 98-61 record. The possibility is very real that New York will win 100 games and still have to play in the Wild Card Round, more an indication of a dominant Atlanta team rather than a 2007-like failure in New York.
Here are the Nationals-Mets MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Nationals-Mets Odds
Washington Nationals: +1.5 (+125)
New York Mets: -1.5 (-150)
Over: 7.5 (+100)
Under: 7.5 (-122)
Why The Nationals Could Cover The Spread
Washington will send Cory Abbott to the mound to open its final regular-season series. Abbott has pitched in 15 games this season, making eight starts, pitching to a 5.11 ERA with 38 strikeouts in 44 innings. Abbott’s fastball has been his best pitch, holding batters to a .184 batting average against, with 13 strikeouts in 87 at-bats.
As expected with a team that is nearly 50 games under .500, this Washington bullpen has been awful, though there have been some bright spots. Erasmo Ramirez has been solid, with a 3.02 ERA in 83.1 innings. In his last 47.1 innings, Ramirez has pitched to a 1.90 ERA. Kyle Finnegan, who has taken over closer duties with Tanner Rainey injured, has been great, with a 3.62 ERA and 11 saves on the season. Carl Edwards Jr. has revived his career with a healthy 2022, posting a 2.66 ERA with 54 strikeouts in 61 innings. Batters have hit just .223 against Edwards.
Washington’s offense in the second half has been led by Joey Meneses. In 53 games, the 30-year-old rookie has slashed .327/.368/.578, launching 13 home runs, 14 doubles, and 34 RBI. Lane Thomas leads the team with 17 home runs, ranking second with 26 doubles. Nelson Cruz leads the team with 64 RBI, adding 10 home runs and 16 doubles. Cesar Hernandez leads the team with 28 doubles and a .248 batting average, adding four triples. In 50 games with his new team, Luke Voit has hit nine home runs and 21 RBI. Washington ranks 11th in the league with a .249 batting average.
Why The Mets Could Cover The Spread
Carlos Carrasco is Monday’s starting pitcher for New York as the team attempts to climb the two-game deficit for the NL East. Carrasco has gone 15-7 with a 3.95 ERA and 149 strikeouts in 148 innings. In his last two starts, Carrasco has struggled a bit, allowing seven earned runs across seven innings. Carrasco’s changeup has been the best of his pitches, holding batters to a .202 average with 56 strikeouts in 166 at-bats.
New York’s bullpen has been good, ranking 10th in the league with a 3.63 ERA in 543 innings. Drew Smith has solidified his spot on the postseason roster, with a 3.40 ERA and 52 strikeouts in 45 innings this season. Sidewinder Adam Ottavino has been lights out this season, with a 2.11 ERA with 77 strikeouts in 64 innings. Batters have hit just .209 against Ottavino, his lowest total since 2019. No discussion of the Mets’ bullpen would be complete without Edwin Diaz. The closer has been dominant this season, striking out an absurd 117 batters in 60.2 innings, pitching to a 1.34 ERA with 31 saves. Opponents have hit just .163 against Diaz. The righty’s 50.6 percent strikeout rate is tops in the league.
Pete Alonso has led the Mets’ offense all season, belting 40 home runs, 131 RBI, and 27 doubles. Francisco Lindor has lived up to the expectations of his huge contract, with 25 home runs, 24 doubles, and 103 RBI. Eduardo Escobar has rebounded from a brutal beginning of the season, hitting .340 with eight home runs in the month of September. Overall, Escobar has belted 20 home runs with 26 doubles. Jeff McNeil leads the team with a .326 batting average and 38 doubles. Brandon Nimmo leads the team with seven triples and 71 walks, adding 28 doubles and 14 home runs with a .267 batting average. When he returns, Starling Marte will be a welcomed addition, bringing a .292 batting average and 18 stolen bases. New York has set an MLB record with 111 hit by pitches. New York ranks second in the league with a .258 batting average.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick
This one should be easy, and New York can build some momentum before the playoffs.
Final Nationals-Mets Prediction & Pick: New York -1.5 (-150), over 7.5 (+100)