The Texas Rangers are set to host the Baltimore Orioles Monday in the first matchup of a three-game set at Globe Life Park. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Orioles-Rangers prediction and pick we have laid out below.
Baltimore enters the contest enter at 51-51 with a 5-5 record over its past 10 games. With the New York Yankees — who boast the best record in the American League — sitting atop the AL East, the division race has long been out of the picture for the Orioles. However, they find themselves just three games back of the final Wild Card spot after a productive month of July.
Texas, meanwhile, has struggled significantly this summer. The Rangers entered June at .500, but it has been downhill since then, posting a 22-31 record over the past two months. They currently sit at 46-55 on the year and are 7 1/2 games back of the American League’s final Wild Card spot.
Baltimore swept Texas in the only series between the teams earlier this season.
Here are the Orioles-Rangers MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Orioles-Rangers Odds
Baltimore Orioles: +1.5 (-160) ML: (+134)
Texas Rangers: -1.5 (+132) ML: (-158)
Over: 7.5 (-118)
Under: 7.5 (-104)
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
While the Orioles have cooled off a little bit as of late, losing the final two games of their most recent series against the Cincinnati Reds, they’re still one of the hotter teams in baseball over the past few weeks. They inserted themselves into the playoff hunt with a 10-game winning streak last month. Their hitting improved during this stretch, ranking 15th in MLB in runs scored, which bumped then up to 21st overall for the season. Pitching was the driving force in their turnaround, though, ranking eighth in MLB and third in the American League with a 3.61 ERA in July.
29-year-old right-hander Spenser Watkins is among the pitchers who have increased their productivity recently, posting a 3.09 ERA over his last seven starts, which includes a successful outing against Texas. On July 6, he allowed just four hits, one walk and one earned run in a victory over the Rangers, and he’ll be looking to build off this in Monday’s game. Watkins missed some time in late May and early June with a forearm injury, but he has enjoyed his best baseball of the year since coming off the injured list. After watching his ERA soar to 6.00, he has allowed only six earned runs over his last 28 innings, with a 2.35 ERA and .241 opponent’s batting average in July.
Outfielder Anthony Santander is another individual hitting his stride at the perfect moment. Over the last seven games, Santander leads the team with a 1.298 OPS, .444 batting average, .483 on-base percentage, .815 slugging percentage, three home runs, seven RBI and 22 total bases. Catcher Adley Rutschman has recorded a team-high six runs scored and four walks during this stretch, and Rutschman, designated hitter Trey Mancini and shortstop Jorge Mateo all have an OPS above .700 for the past week.
Why The Rangers Could Cover The Spread
Much like his counterpart in the other dugout, Texas starter Jon Gray has picked up his pace after a slow start to 2022. He has a respectable 7-5 record with a 3.62 ERA on the season, but he has been even better lately, posting a 5-2 record and 2.72 ERA over his last seven starts. This will mark his first time going up against the Orioles this year.
Pitching was a source of problems for the Rangers last month, with their 4.47 ERA in July being the fourth-highest in the American League, but their performance at the plate generates some optimism. They ranked fourth in all of baseball with 135 runs scored last month and have posted better numbers than Baltimore this year in OPS, batting average, runs scored and home runs, as well as most other hitting categories.
Final Orioles-Rangers Prediction & Pick
In a matchup of two teams that seem fairly even on paper, relief pitching could be a deciding factor. The Rangers have a 3.79 bullpen ERA, which ranks just outside the top 10 in MLB. The Orioles, however, are fourth in all of baseball with a 3.05 bullpen ERA in 2022. With two starting pitchers who have picked up momentum recently, as well as a Texas offense that has been pretty productive and a Baltimore squad that has improved its performance at the plate after a rough start to the year, playing the over-under might be risky. Considering the Orioles have been the better team for the past month, taking them on the money line at +134 has some value here.
Final Orioles-Rangers Prediction & Pick: Orioles ML (+134)