The San Diego Padres will meet the Atlanta Braves in the middle match of a three-game series in Southern California. It's time to look at our MLB odds post and make a Padres-Braves prediction and pick.

 

The Padres defeated the Braves 11-6 in a thriller in Atlanta last night. The Braves trailed 1-0 heading into the third inning when William Contreras crushed a solo home run to center field and into the bullpens. It was his fourth homer in 2022, and it tied the game. Then, the Padres struck next when Eric Hosmer clipped an RBI single that drove home Jake Cronenworth and Jurickson Profar to give the Padres a 3-1 lead. The sixth inning came around when Wil Meyers blasted a 3-1 pitch into the bullpens to put the Padres up 4-2.

Next, the Braves fought back when Dansby Swanson blasted a three-run bomb into the seats in center field. It was his third of 2022 and gave the Braves a 6-4 lead. However, the Padres answered back in the seventh with a three-run blast from Ha-Seong Kim. It was home run number four and put the Padres up 7-6. San Diego added some insurance runs the rest of the way to finish off Atlanta.

Yu Darvish tossed 5 2/3 innings, allowing five earned runs on nine hits for the Padres. Meanwhile, Max Fried went six innings, giving up four earned runs on nine hits. Both finished with a no-decision in this contest.

Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Braves MLB odds:

MLB Odds: Padres-Braves Odds

Padres: +1.5 (-172)

Braves: -1.5 (+142)

Over: 8 (-115)

Under: 8 (-105)

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Why The Padres Could Cover The Spread

San Diego will go with Sean Manaea on the hill. Manaea is 2-3 with a 3.75 ERA in 2022. He tossed six innings in his last start, allowing three earned runs on seven hits in an 8-0 loss to the Miami Marlins. Also, Manaea allowed a home run and walked a batter. The Padres need him to toss another quality start and avoid the long balls. He has allowed four home runs over five starts. Additionally, he needs his offense to pick him up. 

The offense has managed 16 runs over his five starts for an average of 3.2 runs a game. Guys like Myers, Profar, and Manny Machado must spark the offense until Fernando Tatis returns. Myers and Profar contributed last night, but Machado went 0 for 4. The Padres need him to contribute. They also need the bullpen to continue their role. Last night, the pen allowed only one earned run but held the fort the rest of the way. However, the Padres relievers have allowed at least one run in every game this week. 

The Padres will cover the spread if Manaea can give them another quality start. Additionally, San Diego needs the offense roll and Machado to help with that. The San Diego bullpen must pitch a cleaner game. 

Why The Braves Could Cover The Spread

Atlanta will go with Charlie Morton on the mound. Morton is 2-3 with a 5.65 ERA in 2022. He allowed no earned runs on two hits in a 9-2 win over the Milwaukee Brewers. However, he also walked three batters. Morton has yet to pitch into the seventh this year and has also walked 17 batters over six starts. Keeping the walks down will be a must if he is to go the distance against a San Diego lineup that can still hit the ball. He needs a better performance against the Padres this time around. Morton allowed five earned runs on nine hits in a 12-1 loss to the Padres on April 14, exactly one month ago. 

The Braves offense needs to consistently step up when facing teams. Atlanta ranks 21st in batting average, 18th in on-base percentage, and 14th in runs. Alternatively, the Braves are also fifth in home runs. Their ability to hit the long ball has kept them in games and allowed them to steal games they normally wouldn't win in some situations. Austin Riley has seven home runs and 14 RBIs to lead the pack and Ozzie Albies has also contributed six home runs and 13 RBIs. However, the Atlanta pitching staff has not performed well in 2022. Despite Fried's solid pitching, the Braves rank 24th in team ERA and 16th in batting average against. Additionally, they are 23rd in walk-rate per nine innings. 

The Braves will cover the spread if Morton can give them a quality start. Also, Atlanta covers if their offense fires on all cylinders and takes some pressure off Morton. The bullpen must do their job and protect the lead this time. 

Final Padres-Braves Prediction & Pick

The Padres will try and make it two in a row against the Braves. The pitching matchup is not a desirable showdown. However, usually, teams struggle offensively the day after a large explosion. Expect neither team to hit the ball well, and for the game to come to a crawl. 

Final Padres-Braves Prediction & Pick: Under: 8 (-105)