The San Diego Padres take on the Los Angeles Dodgers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Dodgers prediction and pick.
More on the pitching matchups in a moment, but this is another game where the storyline transcends the pitchers involved.
The San Diego Padres have, in the eyes of many analysts and experts, become the team to beat in the National League, even though the Dodgers have a massive lead over the Friars in the N.L. West standings. Everyone knows why this line of thought is credible and worthy of consideration: The Padres landed Juan Soto and Josh Bell in the year's blockbuster trade with the Washington Nationals. Moreover, the Padres secured Brandon Drury and closer Josh Hader. The Padres added four top players, one of them a generational superstar and another a top-tier closer. Their batting order is frighteningly deep. They have significantly upgraded their roster and will be a team no one wants to face in October. This is not how the Padres were viewed before the trade deadline.
The Dodgers have owned the Padres in recent years and are 5-2 against San Diego this year. Yet, despite L.A.'s success against San Diego, the trade deadline has changed the expectations for the Padres. It will be fascinating to see if the Dodgers can hold firm, or if the Padres are ready to change the balance of power in the National League.
One other note: This is the Dodgers' first home game since the death of iconic announcer Vin Scully. This will be a supremely emotional game in Chavez Ravine.
Now, to the pitchers:
Sean Manaea will go to the rubber for the Padres, while Tony Gonsolin gets the ball for the Dodgers.
Sean Manaea has a 4.25 ERA. His July starts tell the story of his season: bits of brilliance, but ultimately inconsistent. Manaea threw really well on July 31 against the Twins: six innings, four hits, only two runs on two solo homers. Yet, in his previous start, he gave up nine runs to the Tigers, four earned, in 3 1/3 innings on July 25. He has had an up-and-down season, and it's hard to predict what he will do on any given night. Factor that into a Padres Dodgers pick.
Tony Gonsolin is confronting the R-word: regression. His ERA was 1.62 on July 7. After three unimpressive starts, Gonsolin's ERA is 2.41. He has allowed 12 runs in his last 16 innings. Everyone in baseball, not just in Los Angeles, is wondering if Gonsolin's amazing first half was unsustainable, and if we're going to see more regression in the second half of the season. This is relevant to your Padres Dodgers prediction.
If ever there was a time for Gonsolin to prove to himself, the Dodgers, and his fans that he can still be an elite pitcher (which he was from April through June), this is it. If he can shut down the souped-up Padres and their ferocious new batting order, the worries about Gonsolin's regression will be silenced.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Dodgers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Dodgers Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-152)
Los Angeles Dodgers: -1.5 (+126)
Over: 8.5 (-112)
Under: 8.5 (-108)
Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
Juan Soto. Josh Bell. Josh Hader. Brandon Drury. Tony Gonsolin's regression. Those are five very big reasons to take San Diego in this game. The Padres had a mediocre offense, an imbalanced batting order, and a weak back end of their bullpen one week ago. Now all those needs have been addressed. General manager A.J. Preller has quickly transformed San Diego into a top-tier World Series contender. One can credibly say that the Padres have a better roster than the Dodgers.
Why The Dodgers Could Cover the Spread
After sweeping a four-game series against the Giants in San Francisco — for the first time since 1977 — Los Angeles is flying high. The Dodgers have lost only five games since July 1. Their best players, especially Trea Turner, are playing lights-out ball. Gonsolin went through a rough patch, as every pitcher does. He'll be fine. This team will want to win on an emotional night at Dodger Stadium, with Vin Scully tributes defining the pregame ceremonies.
Final Padres-Dodgers Prediction & Pick
This is now a supreme showdown series. You probably want to bet on it. Some advice: Don't. This is a new situation loaded with uncertainty. If you insist on a Padres Dodgers prediction, however, go with the Padres.
Final Prediction & Pick: Padres +1.5
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