The San Diego Padres take on the San Francisco Giants. Check out our MLB odds series for our Padres Giants prediction and pick.
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MacKenzie Gore has been one key part of a special story for the Padres this season. The rookie has flourished in his first month and a half in the big leagues, sporting a 2.17 ERA and giving San Diego everything it could have reasonably wanted. The Padres are managing his workload to make sure he isn't overextended. As a result, he hasn't pitched past the sixth inning in any of his starts. However, when he gets the ball, good things happen. He has not allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts, and he allowed three runs exactly once, in five innings. One would expect Gore to lengthen his starts in the coming weeks and months, but right now, the Padres are thrilled with what they are getting from him, which is generally 5 1/3 innings and one run allowed. That's a stabilizing presence in the rotation, one of many reasons this team has done so well without Fernando Tatis. It's an important reality to consider when making a Padres Giants prediction.
Alex Wood has a 3.93 ERA. He has been a mediocre pitcher so far this season, a notch or two below what the Giants were hoping for. He has had his bright moments, such as a five-inning shutout of the Guardians on April 17, and a May 10 game in which he didn't allow an earned run to the Rockies in 5 1/3 innings, but for the most part, Wood has struggled to prevent offenses from pecking away at him. Over the course of five innings, most opponents have usually managed to score two or three runs against him. He has allowed fewer than two runs in only two of his seven starts, and he has not pitched more than 5 1/3 innings in any of those seven outings. San Francisco needs a big start from him here, part of the context for any Padres Giants pick you might make.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Padres-Giants MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Padres-Giants Odds
San Diego Padres: +1.5 (-182)
San Francisco Giants: -1.5 (+150)
Over: 7.5 (-102)
Under: 7.5 (-120)
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Why The Padres Could Cover the Spread
The Padres are a red-hot team, but they're red-hot in the right way: getting great pitching and defense plus timely hitting. Teams will have stretches in which they score large bunches of runs and can't miss a thing, but a more sustainable way of playing is for pitching, hitting and defense to all come together at the same time. That's what San Diego is doing. The Padres cooled off the hot-hitting Phillies earlier in the week. They shut down the Giants on Saturday night after winning a high-scoring game on Friday. This team is winning close games left and right, and with MacKenzie Gore on the hill, San Diego has to love where it stands in this game. Alex Wood has struggled for the Giants. San Diego has the advantage in the pitching matchup.
Why The Giants Could Cover the Spread
After losing twice in this series, the Giants are trying to avoid a sweep. This team is too good and too tough to get swept at home by a division rival. These two games on Friday and Saturday were very close, but the Padres did just enough to win them. The odds would suggest that the Giants are going to fight back and grab one game. There is too much veteran experience in this clubhouse to let this series devolve into a sweep loss.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick
The Padres have the favorable pitching matchup, but the Giants really need this win, and when San Francisco has badly needed a win in recent years, it usually has come through. Take the Giants.
Final Padres-Giants Prediction & Pick: Giants -1.5
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