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Phillies Cubs prediction odds pick

MLB odds: Phillies vs. Cubs prediction, odds, pick, and more – 7/6/2021

The Philadelphia Phillies and Chicago Cubs will continue their four-game series on Tuesday night, with the Phillies taking the first game in impressive fashion. The Cubs gave up 13 runs en route to a 10-run loss on Monday night, something they’ll surely be looking to avenge on Tuesday as they try to end a 10-game losing streak. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Phillies-Cubs prediction and pick.

Here’s how the bookmakers have set the odds for Tuesday’s game.

MLB Odds: Phillies-Cubs Odds

Philadelphia Phillies ML (-139)

Chicago Cubs ML (+129)

Over 10 runs (-115)

Under 10 runs (-105)

Why The Phillies Could Cover The Spread

The Phillies have been playing better baseball as of late. The opposite can be said for the Cubs, as Chicago is the coldest team in the MLB.

The Cubs have lost their last 10 games, being swept by the Milwaukee Brewers and Cincinnati Reds in the process. Chicago has scored more than four runs only once in that span. Their offense now ranks in the bottom five in MLB in every major batting statistic. To make matters worse for Chicago, they have to face Phillies starter Aaron Nola.

Nola has been solid this year, earning himself an ERA of 4.44 to go along with a WHIP of  1.22. This is a slight regression from past years, but I don’t expect him to have any trouble dealing with this Chicago lineup. It helps that this lineup is absolutely terrible against right-handed pitching. The Cubs bat a respectable .248 against lefties, but that batting average plummets to .215 against righties. As one would expect, Chicago’s OBP, OPS, and slugging percentage all follow suit.

Luckily for the Phillies, the Cubs are entrusting the start to pitcher Jake Arrieta. Arrieta has struggled all season long, but his last seven games have been especially rough. In that span, Arrieta has put up a 7.82 ERA and 2.09 WHIP. He has also walked 18 batters while striking out 24. The Phillies seem to be hitting their stride offensively, and I don’t expect Arrieta to do anything to stop that trend.

Why The Cubs Could Cover The Spread

The Cubs have had a terrible time lately, but there’s a chance they turn things around against Nola and the Philadelphia pitching staff. Nola doesn’t consistently work deep into games, meaning that if Chicago shows some discipline, they may be able to get to the bullpen.

Philadelphia’s relief corps hasn’t been something to write home about. Only one Phillies reliever has an ERA that sits below 4.00, so a matchup with this bullpen could be exactly what the doctor ordered for a Chicago offense that’s stuck in the mud.

There’s also some reason for optimism on the pitching side of things. Arrieta has been far from perfect, but there are a couple of factors going his way. The Phillies are slightly worse when facing right-handed pitching, seeing all of their major statistics fall when facing righties. Philadelphia is also worse offensively when playing on the road, something that should help Arrieta out a little bit.

Final Phillies-Cubs Prediction & Pick

This one is a pretty easy pick. The Phillies have pretty much every advantage over the Cubs, and I don’t expect any upsets to happen when Jake Arrieta is pitching for the underdog. The odds on the Philadelphia moneyline are also pretty good, as I don’t expect this game to be close at all. The Phillies should take this game comfortably and extend the Cubs’ losing streak.

FINAL PICK: Philadelphia Phillies ML (-139)