The Pittsburgh Pirates take on the Milwaukee Brewers. Check out our MLB odds series for our Pirates Brewers prediction and pick.
J.T. Brubaker gets the call for the Pirates, while Aaron Ashby takes the hill for the Brewers.
J.T. Brubaker has a 4.28 ERA. He started the year poorly, registering a 6.20 ERA in the month of April. In May, he bounced back, posting a 2.63 ERA and showing he could make adjustments. In June, he regressed to a 4.46 ERA. Brubaker’s pitching profile is notable because whereas some pitchers have high ERAs due to a few really bad outings — nine or 10 runs allowed — which inflate the ERA but stand in marked contrast to a lot of quality appearances, Brubaker is more consistent (consistently mediocre). He has given up more than four earned runs only once this season, and that was when he gave up five earned runs to the Diamondbacks on June 3. So, he doesn’t get absolutely trounced for eight or more runs in a start, at least not in 2022. The roof doesn’t completely cave in on him. However, there are a lot of starts in which he gives up three or four earned runs: There are seven such starts on his 2022 resume, out of 16. That’s nearly half of all his starts. Opponents might not dominate him, but they peck and poke at him and get a few runs off him with great regularity.
Aaron Ashby has a 4.60 ERA. His first 11 appearances of the season were excellent, with only two exceptions. Ashby carried a 2.70 ERA into the month of June on the basis of those 11 appearances. He was a bright spot in the Brewers’ rotation. Then, beginning in June, the wheels fell off. Ashby has pitched to an ERA of nearly nine runs, allowing 18 earned runs in 18 2/3 innings pitched. He has given up at least four runs in all four of those starts. The home run has been a demon for Ashby in that nightmarish four-start sequence. He has given up at least one home run in all four starts, five homers total in that bundle of games. Opponents are delivering big, thunderous hits against him in key spots.
Courtesy of FanDuel, here are the Pirates-Brewers MLB odds.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Brewers Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-120)
Milwaukee Brewers: -1.5 (+100)
Over: 8 (-105)
Under: 8 (-115)
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Why The Pirates Could Cover the Spread
Aaron Ashby is not a good pitcher at the moment. Maybe he will break out of this funk, but right now, he is vulnerable, and the Pirates have to think they can pounce on him and grab a road win in Milwaukee. J.T. Brubaker has not received good run support this season, which explains a 2-7 record for a pitcher who has posted some good games mixed in with his more mediocre outings. This is a pitching matchup in which Brubaker might finally get enough runs to post a winning decision. The Pirates split a two-game series with the New York Yankees earlier this week. They’re 6-2 against the Yankees (1-1) and Dodgers (5-1) this season. They can play with anyone.
Why The Brewers Could Cover the Spread
After getting shut down by Chicago Cub pitching earlier this week — the Brewers did not score more than three runs in any of the three games in that home series versus the Cubbies — Milwaukee hitters are going to be focused and angry in this game. They’re going to want to make a statement, and they’re going to take out their frustrations on Brubaker to get back on the winning track.
Final Pirates-Brewers Prediction & Pick
The Brewers over the Pirates is a fairly reliable pick to make. So is the over in this game. Brubaker and Ashby are mediocre pitchers. They will both allow at least three runs, and if that happens, one of the two teams is likely to score at least five if not six runs, pushing the game over the total.
Final Pirates-Brewers Prediction & Pick: Brewers -1.5, Over 8