The Pittsburgh Pirates will take on the Baltimore Orioles in an Interleague showdown as the teams meet at Camden Yards on Friday. It's time to continue our MLB odds series with a Pirates-Orioles prediction and pick.
The Pirates are 3-7 over their past 10 games. However, they are coming off a series where they swept the Milwaukee Brewers over three games. The sweep keeps them undefeated in August. Now, they look to replicate that energy as they head to Baltimore to take on the Orioles.
The Orioles keep winning despite trading Trey Mancini and Jorge Lopez. Baltimore is 7-3 over 10 games, including winning both games since the respective deals.
The Pirates will send Mitch Keller to the hill today. Keller is 3-7 with a 4.37 ERA in 2022. Recently, he tossed six innings while allowing one earned run on five hits with three strikeouts and three walks. Keller went 1-2 with a 2.61 ERA over five starts in July. Subsequently, he is 3-3 with a 4.44 ERA on the road this season through nine starts and one relief appearance.
The Orioles will go with Dean Kremer on the mound. Kremer is 3-3 with a 3.86 ERA. Recently, he struggled, lasting 4 1/3 innings while allowing six earned runs on 10 hits, including two home runs. Kremer has allowed four home runs over three games. Moreover, it has contributed to his ugly July, where he went 1-2 with a 6.94 ERA. Kremer hopes to start fresh in August.
Here are the Pirates-Orioles MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Pirates-Orioles Odds
Pittsburgh Pirates: +1.5 (-146)
Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+122)
Over: 8.5 (-110)
Under: 8.5 (-110)
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
The Pirates are among the worst teams in baseball, at 43-62. Likewise, they are already playing for the future and moving on past the struggles of 2022. There are a few great pieces in their lineup that could pay dividends down the line. Bryan Reynolds and Ke'Bryan Hayes continue to flourish.
Reynolds is batting .258 with 16 home runs, 34 RBIs, and 44 runs. Amazingly, he produced a .455 batting average (5 for 11) with one home run, two RBIs, and four runs over the three games against Milwaukee. Reynolds had a walk-off home run on Wednesday and scored the winning run on a wild pitch yesterday. Thus, he has been everywhere for the Pirates. Hayes is batting .246 with five home runs, 32 RBIs, and 41 runs. Unfortunately, he has cooled down significantly since his hot start in April. Hayes has shown resiliency, going 3 for 12 against the Brewers. Ultimately, there is still work to do for Hayes.
The Pirates will cover the spread if they jump out to an early lead. Essentially, they must figure out Kremer early and find a way to get out ahead of the O's. Reynolds and Hayes must once again power the offense.
Why The Orioles Could Cover The Spread
The Orioles were not supposed to be this good. Moreover, they were supposed to be in last place. Baltimore has been a last-place team for so long, that their recent success feels like a mirage. Additionally, they traded two of their top players and still swept the Texas Rangers. The Orioles have a few good players that are keeping the lights on.
Adley Rutschman is a significant reason why the Orioles are in fourth place and a couple of games behind the Tampa Bay Rays for the last wildcard spot. He is batting .252 with five home runs, 19 RBIs, and 35 runs over 58 games. While his bat is not always firing on all cylinders, he has shown the relentless ability to get on base. Rutschman's numbers indicate a 15 home run, 60 RBI, and 100 run pace over a full schedule. Additionally, he went 5 for 11 against the Rangers. The Orioles are 34-24 since calling him up to the majors.
Ryan Mountcastle is also a key contributor to the Orioles. He is batting .252 with 14 home runs, 52 RBIs, and 42 runs in 2022. However, Mountcastle went 2 for 12 against Texas and will hope for better success against Pittsburgh. He is batting .236 with six home runs, 24 RBIs, and 16 runs at Camden Yards.
The biggest reason for the improvement is a stellar bullpen. The Orioles' bullpen ranks fourth in the majors with a 3.06 ERA. Ultimately, they will face tougher tests now that Lopez is gone.
The Orioles will cover the spread if Rutschman and Mountcastle can lead a young Baltimore lineup by getting on base and scoring. Likewise, their starting pitching must hold up. Kremer needs to rebound, and the bullpen must remain efficient.
Final Pirates-Orioles Prediction & Pick
The Orioles are 12-8 against the Pirates all-time, and 9-1 against them at Camden Yards. Though it's been five years since the teams met, the expectation is more of the same. Expect the Orioles to cover.
Final Pirates-Orioles Prediction & Pick: Baltimore Orioles: -1.5 (+122)
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