The Pittsburgh Pirates and Chicago White Sox will finish up a two-game series on Wednesday night. It's time to continue our MLB odds series and make a Pirates-White Sox prediction and pick.
This may not be the most exciting matchup in baseball, but there are some things to watch for. The White Sox are battling for the best record in the AL, and while their division title is all but locked up, home-field advantage throughout the playoffs would be a great get as they head into the postseason.
The Pirates, on the other hand, don't have anything to play for. They're one of the worst teams in baseball with zero chance of making the postseason, so a win against a team like a White Sox would do wonders for their confidence.
Here's how the bookmakers have set the lines for Wednesday's game.
MLB Odds: Pirates-White Sox Odds
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Pittsburgh Pirates +1 1/2 (+145)
Chicago White Sox -1 1/2 (-165)
Over 8 1/2 runs (-113)
Under 8 1/2 runs (-107)
Why The Pirates Could Cover The Spread
Honestly, so many things would have to go perfectly in order for the Pirates to even cover in this game. They're completely outmatched in this one, but their best chance of covering lies with their offense. This lineup will have to face White Sox starter Carlos Rodon, but there is some reason for optimism.
Rodon's season-long numbers are elite, but they've fallen off a little bit in his past seven appearances. Over that span, his ERA has increased from 2.43 to 3.25, with his WHIP seeing a similar jump. Helping the Pirates is the fact that they are slightly better swinging the bat against left-handed pitching. Pittsburgh's batting average, OPS, and slugging percentage all rise when facing a lefty as opposed to a righty. While unlikely, it's possible that the Pirates can get to Rodon over the course of his start.
Why The White Sox Could Cover The Spread
Chicago is one of the best teams in baseball and playing one of the worst. The White Sox have a plethora of advantages, but it starts with the offense. Their lineup ranks inside the top 10 in MLB in batting average, slugging percentage, OBP, and OPS. They have an argument for the best offense in the league, something that Pirates starter Max Kranick should be very worried about.
Kranick has only made five appearances this season and four of them have ended poorly. Over his last four starts, Kranick has pitched 15 innings and given up 16 runs. The Arizona Diamondbacks were able to put up four runs in three innings against him, and they're one of the worst offenses in baseball. This White Sox offense should have absolutely no trouble putting up plenty of runs on Kranick.
When things are inevitably turned over to Pittsburgh's bullpen, the situation gets even better for Chicago. The Pirates have four reliable relievers, and it's unlikely that they're called upon to pitch in what should be a blowout. Instead, the White Sox are more likely to face the five other Pittsburgh relievers who own ERAs of 4.20 or much, much higher. Runs should come easily throughout all nine innings for Chicago, so even a complete meltdown from Rodon could still end in a White Sox cover.
Final Pirates-White Sox Prediction & Pick
This is a no-brainer. The White Sox should win and cover easily about nine times out of 10, making them an easy selection here. The over is also in play, as Chicago has a chance of cracking that on its own.
FINAL PICK: Chicago White Sox -1 1/2 (-165)
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