The New York Yankees are set to host the Tampa Bay Rays today in the final matchup of a three-game set at Yankee Stadium. With that said, it’s a good time to check out our MLB odds series, which includes our Rays-Yankees prediction and pick we have laid out below.
A return to the Bronx hasn't done anything to stop the Yankees' downward spiral, with back-to-back defeats at the hands of the Rays bringing New York to a total of 11 losses in its last 13 games. The Yankees still lead Tampa Bay by nine games for the American League East lead, but if their tailspin continues much longer, the division title hunt could become a source of intrigue during the final month of the season.
The Rays enter today's contest at 62-53, with a 6-4 record over their last 10 games. If the season ended today, they would secure the American League's second wild-card spot. However, they are two games or less ahead of the first three teams that are currently on the outside looking in.
Here are the Rays-Yankees MLB odds, courtesy of FanDuel.
MLB Odds: Rays-Yankees Odds
Tampa Bay Rays: +1.5 (-166)
New York Yankees: -1.5 (+138)
Over: 8.5 (-108)
Under: 8.5 (-112)
Why The Rays Could Cover The Spread
While it might be easy to be persuaded that a Yankees team that has been among the most dominant in baseball for most of the season is bound to get back on track eventually, it's impossible to ignore their recent struggles. If this were a rough stretch of a couple of weeks, that would be one thing. A 30-game span in which they are eight games below .500 is another. While the Yankees' full-season track record shows they are better than who they have been lately, they're far from the clearcut American League favorite they were a few months ago. It's also worth noting that, in addition to New York being tied for the fifth-worst record in baseball over the last 30 games, the Rays are five games above .500 during this same stretch.
The relief staff has been a source of optimism for the Yankees all season, with their 2.97 bullpen ERA ranking second in the MLB, but this group will be without one of its most vital pieces in the immediate future. Closer Clay Holmes, who has a 2.39 ERA and 17 saves on the year, is expected to miss some time with a back issue. This loss seems to negate the slight difference between two quality relief staff, with Tampa Bay ranking seventh in the MLB with a 3.34 bullpen ERA.
Why The Yankees Could Cover The Spread
Neither projected starting pitcher has been great this season, with Tampa Bay's Corey Kluber and New York's Domingo Germán both giving up an average of more than four runs per nine innings. However, Germán has been slightly more productive in his five starts this year, posting a 4.18 ERA, compared to a 4.40 ERA for Kluber. The Rays' starter has also been in a significant rut lately. After leaving June with a 3.45 ERA and .215 opponent batting average, he posted a 5.34 ERA and .289 opponent batting average in July. In two starts this month, he's given up 17 hits and 10 earned runs in 11 2/3 innings, while allowing opposing batters to hit .347 against him. Yankees homers have been saying this for a while, but this truly does seem like the prime opportunity for New York to get back on track at the plate.
Even with the Yankees taking a significant downturn as of late, they've still been more productive with the bat than Tampa Bay has since the All-Star break. In addition to having the most home runs in the American League during this stretch, they've posted better batting average, on-base-percentage, slugging percentage, and runs scored figures than the Rays, who rank near the bottom of the MLB in all of these categories. Star slugger Aaron Judge has continued to solidify his status as the favorite to win the American League MVP over the past month, leading the AL in runs scored, home runs, RBI, extra-base hits, and OPS during this stretch.
Final Rays-Yankees Prediction & Pick
The lack of quality starting pitching and the recent struggles of each offense make this game a difficult one to pick on either side, with no obvious play emerging on the run line, money line, or over-under. Out of all the full-game options, though, the under seems to be the most appealing bet. Holmes' absence will hurt the Yankees, but they still have multiple relievers with ERAs below 3.00, so there shouldn't be a massive drop-off for the New York bullpen.
Final Rays-Yankees Prediction & Pick: Under 8.5 (-112)
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